• Introduction
• Education Is Important
• Enrollments and Diversity Are Increasing
• Many Children Start Kindergarten With Basic Skills, but Performance Gaps Are Already Apparent
• Peformance in Grades 1-12 Is Improving, but Concerns Persist
• Conclusion

A high-quality educational system is key to the well-being of our nation and its people, and reliable data are critical in guiding efforts to improve education in America.

Drawing on numerous NCES surveys and other data sources, this annual report presents indicators of important developments and trends in American education. Recurrent themes underscored by the indicators include academic excellence, equity of access, and new challenges. This year's edition of The Condition of Education contains 67 separate indicators. Each indicator focuses on a single facet of the American educational system. Together, the indicators present a complex picture of education in our nation at the turn of the millennium. Key elements of this picture include the

• importance of education;
• increasing numbers and diversity of students;
• differences in skills and knowledge among students; even as they begin kindergarten; and
• positive trends and continuing challenges that relate to student performance

Ideally, education should help all Americans to gain knowledge and intellectual enrichment, to adapt rapidly to an ever-changing workplace, and to function as responsible citizens. It should also benefit society as a whole-for example, by promoting the health of our democratic system and the competitiveness of our nation in today's technology-driven global economy. The information presented in The Condition indicates that educational attainment is, in fact, associated with increases in lifetime learning, civic participation, and economic returns.

NCES survey results suggest that a strong educational foundation encourages people to continue learning throughout their lives. Thus, the percentage of adults taking classes (e.g., organized training, courses, seminars) increases with each level of educational attainment. In 1999, for example, adults with a college degree were about 60 percent more likely to take classes than adults with a high school diploma.

Data also confirm a link between educational attainment levels and levels of civic participation. In the 1996 presidential election, for example, college graduates ages 25-44 were 70 percent more likely to vote than high school graduates in the same age group. High school dropouts were about 50 percent less likely to vote than high school graduates. Although voting rates dropped at all educational levels between 1964 and 1996, the decline was generally greater among those with less education (figure A).

As for monetary returns, the relative value of a college degree has never been higher. Between 1980 and 1998, the earnings of 25- to 34-year-olds who had at least a bachelor's degree increased markedly relative to the earnings of their peers who had only a high school diploma. Among men in this age group, the earnings advantage of college graduates over high school graduates grew from 19 percent in 1980 to 56 percent in 1998. Among women, the earnings advantage grew from 52 percent in 1980 to 100 percent in 1998. Thus, the economic benefit of a college degree is even greater for women than for men. For both men and women, the negative economic effect of dropping out of high school has continued over time.

Enrollments are growing at all levels of education, but for different reasons. At the preprimary level, growth is due to higher rates of enrollment; that is, larger percentages of 3- to 5-year-old children are enrolling in school. At the elementary and secondary levels, growth is due to demographic changes, which are also making the student body more diverse. At the postsecondary level, higher enrollment rates and population growth are combining to swell enrollments.

Figure A. — Voting rates for presidential elections for the population ages 25-44, by highest level of education completed: 1964, 1988, and 1996

Enrollment rates are growing fastest among America's youngest students (figure B). Between 1970 and 1998, the proportion of 3- to 5-year-olds who were enrolled grew from 38 percent to 65 percent. This growth corresponds with both an increase in the percentage of working mothers and a growing awareness of the benefits of high-quality early childhood education, particularly for disadvantaged children.

Because preprimary education may help lay a foundation for success in elementary school, many people are concerned about equal access to education at this level. While data on preprimary enrollment rates among various groups of children do not address the issue of quality, they do at least provide information about access to preprimary education. The data on 1999 enrollments are mixed. For example, black children were more likely to be enrolled in preprimary education than white or Hispanic children. While poor white 3- and 4-year-olds did not participate in preprimary education at as high a rate as nonpoor white children in the same age group, black and Hispanic children in poverty were just as likely to be enrolled as those above the poverty level. Overall, children's enrollment rates increased with their parents' levels of educational attainment.

Because elementary and secondary education is mandatory, most 6- to 17-year-olds (about 98 percent) are enrolled (figure B). Despite a steady enrollment rate, however, demographic changes are causing increases in both the number and the diversity of public school students in this age group. One demographic change affecting enrollments is the baby boom echo, that is, the growth in the number of births that began in the mid-1970s and peaked in 1990. Another influence is the growth in the number of immigrants over the past 2 decades.

As a result of the baby boom echo combined with immigration, the population in the 6- to 17-year-old age group has been increasing since 1985. So far, the resulting wave of enrollments has hit hardest at the elementary and middle school levels. Between 1985 and 1999, public school enrollments in grades 1-8 rose by 24 percent. During the same period, enrollments increased by 9 percent in grades 9-12. These enrollment increases have intensified the need for public school staff, classroom space, and equipment.

Between 1999 and 2009, growth in public school enrollments is expected to be concentrated in the secondary grades, which will experience an additional 9 percent increase by 2009. The majority of this growth is expected to occur in the West and in the South.

In addition to accommodating larger numbers of students, public schools must meet the challenges of increased racial/ethnic and language diversity. Between 1972 and 1998, the proportion of U.S. public school students in grades 1-12 who were considered part of a minority group rose from 22 percent to 37 percent. This increase occurred largely because of rapid growth in the proportion of Hispanic students-from 6 percent of all public school students in 1972 to 15 percent in 1998. The proportion of Hispanic students in the West reached 30 percent in 1998. In the same year, the West had a higher proportion of minority students-48 percent-than any other part of the country.

Figure B. — Number of enrolled and not enrolled people ages 3-34, by level: October, 1970-98

For the past 3 decades, postsecondary enrollments have generally increased (figure B). During the 1970s, growth in postsecondary enrollments was fueled by an increase in the traditional college-age population (18- to 24-year-olds). Despite a decrease in this population during the 1980s, postsecondary enrollments continued to grow because of rising rates of enrollment in this age group. During the 1990s, when the college-age population began increasing again due to the baby boom echo, enrollment rates in this age group continued to rise. By 1998, 37 percent of all 18- to 24-year-olds were enrolled in college, up from 26 percent in 1980. Enrollment rates have risen even more quickly among women, who increased their overall share of postsecondary enrollments from 41 percent in 1970 to 57 percent in 1998.

Postsecondary enrollment rates are higher among the traditional college-age population than among any other age group. Projections for the next decade show these rates rising from their current high levels, while the college-age population increases substantially. As a result, post-secondary enrollments are expected to grow by about 10 percent between 1999 and 2009. Because most college students in the traditional age group attend full time, the number of full-time students is expected to grow at least three and one-half times faster than the number of part-time students.

Record-setting postsecondary enrollments are likely to continue. Postsecondary institutions may adopt a variety of strategies to deal with the record numbers of students. In addition to expanding the staff and facilities used for traditional education, institutions may use distance education to meet some of the demand. Already, increasing numbers of institutions-particularly those in the public sector-are offering distance education courses. Between fall 1995 and the 1997-98 academic year, for example, the proportion of public 4-year institutions offering such courses grew from 62 percent to 79 percent. In 1997-98, moreover, an additional 12 percent of public 4-year institutions planned to offer such courses within the next 3 years. In contrast to the 91 percent of public 4-year institutions with offerings or plans to offer distance education courses, private 4-year institutions were much less likely to offer distance education courses. In 1997-98, 47 percent of these institutions either offered such courses or planned to do so within the next 3 years.

Not only are more high school graduates enrolling in college, but more of them are doing so in the fall immediately after they complete high school. In 1998, 66 percent of high school graduates enrolled in college immediately, compared with 49 percent in 1972. Between 1972 and 1998, the immediate enrollment rate increased faster for women than for men. Since 1984, the rate of immediate enrollment has also grown faster for blacks than for whites, reducing the gap between these groups. By 1998, 62 percent of black high school graduates were enrolling in postsecondary institutions immediately after high school. However, some gaps in immediate enrollment rates-such as the gap between high- and low-income students-have persisted.

In 1998, 77 percent of high school graduates from high-income families enrolled in college immediately, compared with 46 percent of those from low-income families.

As children start kindergarten, differences are already apparent in their skills and knowledge. Such differences are associated with many of the same characteristics that relate to the academic performance and educational attainment of older students.

By the time children get to kindergarten, they are already developing basic skills related to reading and mathematics. In the fall of 1998, for example, 94 percent of beginning kindergartners could recognize single-digit numbers and basic shapes. In addition, the majority could recognize the letters of the alphabet and were able to count beyond 10 and compare the relative lengths of objects. Fewer beginning kindergartners had attained higher levels of proficiency. For example, only 4 percent could solve simple addition and subtraction problems.

Beginning kindergartners' proficiency levels and average performance in reading and mathematics varied with characteristics such as their race/ethnicity, family income level, and mothers' educational attainment. For example, children's average performance increased with the level of their mothers' education (figure C). Nevertheless, some children whose mothers had less than a high school education showed high levels of reading and mathematics skills, with 6 percent scoring in the highest quartile in reading and 7 percent in the highest quartile in mathematics. The Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS) will follow these beginning kindergartners and their peers through the fifth grade, enabling us to document-among other things-whether the performance gaps between various groups of children widen or narrow with further education. This study holds great promise for increasing our understanding of which features of the home, preschool, and elementary school environments can help all children-including those with risk factors-perform to their fullest potential.

At the elementary and secondary levels, trends in student performance and course taking are generally positive. But issues of equal educational opportunity and international competitiveness remain.

Between 1971 and 1996, 9- and 13-year-olds improved their performance on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) long-term trend assessment in reading. During the same period, little change occurred in the performance of 17-year-olds. In all three age groups, female students outscored male students, and white students outscored black and Hispanic students. The score gap between black and white students narrowed between the early 1970s and the mid-1980s, but then remained fairly stable. The relative performance of females compared with males and of whites compared with Hispanics did not change significantly between the 1970s and 1996.

Figure C. — Average reading and mathematics performance of first-time kindergarteners, by mother's highest education level: Fall 1998

Between the late 1970s and 1996, 9-, 13-, and 17-year-olds all improved their performance on the NAEP long-term trend assessments in mathematics and science. During this period, white students scored higher than black and Hispanic students, but the black-white score gap narrowed in both mathematics and science. The Hispanic-white score gap narrowed for 13- and 17-year-olds in mathematics, but showed little change for any age group in science. The mathematics scores of male students did not differ significantly from those of female students. In science, male students outscored female students, although the male-female gap narrowed for 17-year-olds.

On the long-term trend assessments, a score of 300 or higher indicates high performance in a subject area and demonstrates a student's ability to think critically and apply reasoning, analytical, and problem-solving skills. The improvements in mathematics and science performance between the late 1970s and 1996 included increases in the percentages of 17-year-olds scoring at this high level. In mathematics, the percentage of 17-year-olds scoring at or above 300 increased from 52 percent in 1978 to 60 percent in 1996. In science, the percentage increased from 42 per-cent in 1977 to 48 percent in 1996.

Overall improvement in mathematics and science performance has been accompanied by increased participation in advanced mathematics and science courses (figure D). Between 1982 and 1998, for example, the percentage of graduating high school students who had completed courses at either of the two highest levels of mathematics (including such courses as trigonometry, precalculus, and calculus) increased from 11 percent to 27 percent. Over the same period, the percentage of graduating students who had completed either of the two highest levels of science (consisting of a chemistry course plus a physics course, or one advanced-level course in either subject) increased from 12 percent to 26 percent. Graduates who met the requirements of the core New Basics curriculum-i.e., 4 years of English, plus 3 years each of social studies, science, and mathematics-were more likely to have completed advanced courses than graduates who did not meet these requirements.

In 1995, international comparisons of performance and curriculum in mathematics and science yielded less positive results, especially at the higher grade levels. U.S. 4th-graders scored above the international average in both mathematics and science. U.S. 8th-graders scored above the international average in science but below the average in mathematics. And U.S. 12th-graders scored below the international average in both science and mathematics. In a test of students who had taken advanced mathematics courses, moreover, U.S. 12th-graders scored lower than advanced mathematics students in most of the countries that participated in the test. Similarly, 12th-grade physics students in the United States scored lower on a physics test than their counterparts in all but one of the other participating countries.

Figure D. — Percentage distributions of high school graduates according to the highest level of advanced mathematics and science courses taken: Selected years, 1982-98

The lower performance of U.S. secondary students compared with their peers in other countries may be related to the quality of the U.S. mathematics curriculum. In a 1995 exploratory analysis of videotaped 8th-grade mathematics lessons, the lessons in the United States were more likely to receive the lowest rating for quality of content than the lessons in Germany or Japan, the other two countries participating. Thirty-nine percent of the Japanese lessons and 28 percent of the German lessons received the highest quality rating whereas none of the U.S. lessons received this rating.

In examining trends in the condition of American education, many encouraging signs emerge, including higher rates of educational participation in the overall population as well as increases in mathematics and science performance and course taking among high school students. But international comparisons of student performance and instructional quality raise concerns about how well the American educational system compares with the systems of other countries, especially at the secondary level. In addition, disturbing gaps persist in academic performance and educational participation among different racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups. A growing and increasingly diverse population of elementary and secondary students continues to increase the challenge of providing high-quality instruction and equal educational opportunities.

At the postsecondary level, institutions must prepare for the record numbers of enrollments that are expected over the next few decades.