• Introduction
• Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
• Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions
• High School Graduates
• Earned Degrees Conferred
• Elementary and Secondary Teachers
• Expenditures of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools
• Reference

Projections of Education Statistics to 2011 is the 30th report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions and extensions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2010 (Gerald and Hussar 2000). It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools as well as postsecondary institutions that grant associate’s or higher degrees. For the nation, the report contains data on enrollment, teachers, graduates, and expenditures for the past 14 years and projections to the year 2011. In addition, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2011 at the state level. These projections were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology.

The NCES projections presented in this report reflect revised population projections developed by the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 1990 census, but they are not adjusted for the 1990 net undercount of 4 to 5 million. The Census Bureau’s revised population projections incorporate the 1999 intercensal population estimates as well as the latest assumptions for the fertility rate, net immigration, and the mortality rate. The population projections are not based on the 2000 census data; projections of national population data are not scheduled for release until 2002.

As detailed in the full report’s technical appendices, assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. Because projections of time series depend on the validity of many assumptions, these projections are uncertain and usually differ from the final reported data. Therefore, this report includes three alternative projections for many of the statistical series. These alternative projections are based on different assumptions about growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative) is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes.

The report contains six chapters,* each consisting of a summary essay followed by a number of figures and tables:

Chapter title	Chapter includes
	State-level projections?	Alternative projections?
Elementary and Secondary Enrollment	Yes (for public schools)
Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions		Yes
High School Graduates	Yes (for public schools)
Earned Degrees Conferred
Elementary and Secondary Teachers		Yes
Expenditures of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools		Yes

This article presents key statistics from each chapter.

Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment grew throughout the 1990s, with projections indicating an increase of 14 percent between 1990 and 2000 (table A). This increase occurred primarily because of the rise in the number of annual births between 1977 and 1990—sometimes referred to as the baby boom echo. After a period of stability and small declines from 1991 to 1997, the number of births has begun rising again.

Slight increases in total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment are expected until 2005, followed by slight declines for most of the years between 2005 and 2011. Thus, total enrollment is projected to increase from 52.9 million in 1999 to 53.4 million in 2005. Then total enrollment is projected to decrease to 53.0 million by 2011, an overall increase of less than 1 percent from 1999.

Enrollment in grades K-8 increased from 34.0 million in 1990 to a projected 38.1 million in 2000 (table A), an increase of 12 percent. Enrollment in grades K-8 is projected to increase slightly to 38.2 million in 2001, and then decrease slowly through 2008 to 37.4 million. Thereafter, enrollment in grades K-8 is expected to begin increasing again, rising to 37.7 million by 2011.

Enrollment in grades 9-12 rose from 12.5 million in 1990 to a projected 14.8 million in 2000, an increase of 18 percent. In 2005, enrollment in grades 9-12 is projected to reach an all-time record of 15.8 million, surpassing the previous high of 15.7 million in 1976. Thereafter, enrollment in grades 9-12 is projected to rise to 15.9 million in 2006, before decreasing slightly to 15.3 million by 2011, resulting in an increase of 4 percent from 2000.

While enrollment in the nation’s public elementary and secondary schools is projected to rise less than 1 percent between 1999 and 2011, changes in enrollment will vary by region and by state (figure A). Over this period, public elementary and secondary school enrollment is projected to increase 8 percent in the West and 1 percent in the South. In the Northeast and the Midwest, however, public school enrollment is projected to decrease 4 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Between 1999 and 2011, public school enrollment is projected to decrease or remain about the same in 31 states, while increasing in 19 states and the District of Columbia. All of the Midwestern states are projected to have decreases, as are all of the Northeastern states except New Jersey. However, increases are expected in all of the Western states and some of the Southern states. The largest increases are expected in Alaska (13 percent), Arizona (10 percent), Hawaii (12 percent), Idaho (17 percent), Nevada (13 percent), and New Mexico (14 percent).

Table A.—Enrollment in grades K-8 and 9-12 of elementary and secondary schools, by control of institution, with projections: Fall 1986 to fall 2011 (In thousands)

Figure A.—Percent change in grades K-12 enrollment in public schools, by state: Fall 1999 to fall 2011

Overall enrollment in degree-granting institutions—hereafter referred to as “college enrollment”—increased 18 percent between 1986 and 1999 and is expected to rise between 1999 and 2011. Changes in age-specific enrollment rates and college-age populations will affect enrollment levels over this period. The most important factor in the projected rise of college enrollment is the projected increase of 17 percent in the traditional college-age population of 18- to 24-year-olds from 1999 to 2011.

Under the middle alternative, college enrollment is projected to increase from 14.8 million in 1999 to 17.7 million in 2011 (figure B), an increase of 20 percent. A 16 percent increase is projected under the low alternative, and a 23 percent increase is projected under the high alternative. The remainder of this discussion focuses on college enrollment projections under the middle alternative.

Women played a major role in the increase of college enrollment between 1986 and 1999. As a share of total college enrollment, women comprised 56 percent of all college students in 1999 compared with 53 percent in 1986. Between 1999 and 2011, the number of women enrolled is expected to increase 24 percent, while the number of men enrolled is expected to increase 14 percent. As a result, women are expected to increase their share of college enrollment to 58 percent during this period.

The enrollment of students who are 18 to 24 years old increased from 8.1 million in 1991 to 8.8 million in 1999, an increase of 9 percent. This number is expected to increase to 10.8 million by 2011, an increase of 22 percent from 1999. As a result, the proportion of students who are 18 to 24 years old, which increased from 56 percent in 1991 to 60 percent in 1999, is projected to be 61 percent by 2011.

The enrollment of students who are 25 years and over decreased from 6.1 million in 1991 to 5.8 million in 1999, a decrease of 5 percent. This number is projected to be 6.7 million in 2011, an increase of 15 percent from 1999. The proportion of students 25 years old and over decreased from 43 percent in 1991 to 39 percent in 1999. This proportion is projected to be 38 percent by 2011.

Figure B.—Enrollment in degree-granting institutions, with alternative projections: Fall 1986 to fall 2011

The number of graduates from public and private high schools is projected to increase from 2.8 million in 1998-99 to 3.1 million by 2010-11 (table B), an increase of 11 percent. This increase reflects the projected rise in the 18-year-old population.

Between 1998-99 and 2010-11, the number of graduates from public high schools is also projected to increase 11 percent. The number of public high school graduates is expected to increase 20 percent in the West, 12 percent in the South, 11 percent in the Northeast, and 2 percent in the Midwest. At the state level, 27 states and the District of Columbia are expected to show increases in the number of public high school graduates over this period. The largest increases are expected in Arizona (40 percent), Florida (28 percent), Georgia (28 percent), Nevada (75 percent), and North Carolina (28 percent).

Table B.—High school graduates, by control of institution, with projections: 1985-86 to 2010-11 (In thousands)

Historical growth in college enrollment has led to a substantial increase in the number of earned degrees conferred. Just as the unprecedented rise in the enrollment of women contributed to the overall increase in college enrollment between 1986 and 1999, so too it boosted the number of degrees conferred between 1985-86 and 1997-98, the latest academic year for which historical data are available. Over this period, the number of degrees awarded to women rose at all levels. In 1997-98, women earned the majority of associate’s, bachelor’s, and master’s degrees, as well as more than two-fifths of doctor’s and first-professional degrees.

Between 1997-98 and 2010-11, increases in the total number of earned degrees are expected to continue, along with increases in the number of degrees earned at each level. For example, the number of bachelor’s degrees is expected to increase from 1.18 million in 1997-98 to 1.39 million by 2010-11 (figure C), an increase of 18 percent. Over the same period, the number of degrees awarded to women is projected to rise at all levels.

While the number of degrees awarded to men is projected to increase at the bachelor’s level, it is projected to remain steady at the associate’s, master’s, doctor’s, and first-professional levels.

Figure C.—Bachelor's degrees, by sex of recipient, with projections: 1985-86 to 2010-11

Between 1999 and 2011, the number of teachers in elementary and secondary schools is projected to rise. The projected increase is related to the levels of enrollments and education revenue receipts from state sources per capita. The projected increase in the number of teachers is related to projected enrollment levels and, especially, to a projected increase in education revenue receipts from state sources per capita. Increases are expected in the numbers of both elementary and secondary teachers. The numbers of both public and private school teachers are projected to grow.

Under the middle alternative, the number of elementary and secondary teachers is expected to increase from 3.30 million in 1999 to 3.65 million by 2011, an increase of 10 percent. A 9 percent increase is projected under the low alternative, and an 11 percent increase is projected under the high alternative.

Current expenditures and average annual teacher salaries in public elementary and secondary schools are both projected to increase between 1998-99 and 2010-11, with current expenditures projected to increase more rapidly.

Under the middle alternative, current expenditures of public elementary and secondary schools are projected to increase 34 percent in constant 1999-2000 dollars, from $311.6 billion in 1998-99 to $418.3 billion in 2010-11 (figure D). Under the low alternative, current expenditures are projected to increase 29 percent; under the high alternative, current expenditures are projected to increase 40 percent.

Under the middle alternative, current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment are projected to increase 33 percent in constant 1999-2000 dollars, from $6,696 in 1998-99 to $8,875 in 2010-11.

The average teacher salary in constant 1999-2000 dollars is projected to reach $43,216 in 2010-11. This is a 4 percent increase from the level estimated for 2000-01.

Figure D.—Current expenditures of public schools (in constant 1999-2000 dollars), with alternative projections: 1985-86 to 2010-11

*Expenditures of degree-granting institutions are excluded from this year’s report because of lack of available data for recent years.

Gerald, D.E., and Hussar, W.J. (2000). Projections of Education Statistics to 2010 (NCES 2000-071). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

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