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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table B-5.  Actual and projected fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, change in fall enrollment from previous year, resident population, and fall enrollment as a ratio of the population: School years 1996–97 through 2021–22
School year Fall enrollment
(in thousands)
Change in fall enrollment
from previous year
(in thousands)
Resident population
(in millions)
Fall enrollment
as a ratio of
the population
Actual        
1996–97 45,611 771 269.7 0.169
1997–98 46,127 516 272.9 0.169
1998–99 46,539 412 276.1 0.169
1999–2000 46,857 319 279.3 0.168
2000–01 47,204 346 282.4 0.167
2001–02 47,672 468 285.2 0.167
2002–03 48,183 511 287.9 0.167
2003–04 48,540 357 290.6 0.167
2004–05 48,795 255 293.2 0.166
2005–06 49,113 318 295.9 0.166
2006–07 49,316 203 298.8 0.165
2007–08 49,293 -23 301.7 0.163
2008–09 49,266 -27 304.5 0.162
2009–10 49,373 108 307.2 0.161
2010–11 49,484 111 309.8 0.160
Projected        
2011–12 49,636 151 312.8 0.159
2012–13 49,828 192 315.8 0.158
2013–14 50,067 239 318.9 0.157
2014–15 50,407 340 322.0 0.157
2015–16 50,773 366 325.1 0.156
2016–17 51,146 372 328.2 0.156
2017–18 51,524 378 331.4 0.155
2018–19 51,880 356 334.5 0.155
2019–20 52,260 380 337.7 0.155
2020–21 52,688 428 340.9 0.155
2021–22 53,113 425 344.1 0.154
NOTE: Resident population includes civilian population and armed forces personnel residing with the United States: it excludes armed forces personnel overseas. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Projections are from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2008 National Population Projections, ratio-adjusted to line up with the most recent historical estimate.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 16, 2011 from http://www.census.gov/popest/data/index.html; and Population Projections, retrieved November 2, 2008, from http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/2008projections.html. U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1996–97 through 2010–11; and Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972–2010. (This table was prepared February 2012.)

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