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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table A-18.  Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of women at postsecondary degree-granting institutions
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
Full-time          
Intercept term for 17-year-olds -9.56 0.158 -60.53 1.00 1.25~
Intercept term for 18-year-olds -6.78 0.139 -48.90    
Intercept term for 19-year-olds -6.64 0.133 -49.80    
Intercept term for 20-year-olds -6.73 0.134 -50.15    
Intercept term for 21-year-olds -6.95 0.134 -51.71    
Intercept term for 22-year-olds -7.60 0.136 -55.88    
Intercept term for 23-year-olds -8.10 0.138 -58.60    
Intercept term for 24-year-olds -8.48 0.139 -60.98    
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds -9.05 0.141 -64.01    
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds -9.75 0.139 -69.92    
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds -9.97 0.140 -71.25    
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita
   disposable income in 2000 dollars, using the present
   period and the previous two periods
1.20 0.026 46.79    
Log age-specific unemployment rate for women 0.33 0.035 9.36    
           
Part-time          
Intercept term for 17-year-olds -11.54 0.567 -20.37 0.99 1.86*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds -8.71 0.313 -27.83    
Intercept term for 19-year-olds -8.17 0.302 -27.06    
Intercept term for 20-year-olds -8.33 0.299 -27.89    
Intercept term for 21-year-olds -8.35 0.294 -28.37    
Intercept term for 22-year-olds -8.53 0.295 -28.90    
Intercept term for 23-year-olds -8.59 0.297 -28.96    
Intercept term for 24-year-olds -8.66 0.300 -28.87    
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds -9.08 0.306 -29.62    
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds -9.51 0.305 -31.22    
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds -9.16 0.308 -29.79    
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita
   disposable income in 2000 dollars, using the present
   period and the previous two periods
1.04 0.047 22.03    
Log unemployment rate 0.17 0.023 7.15    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 17-year-olds 0.85 0.070 12.16    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 18-year-olds 0.78 0.079 9.87    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 19-year-olds 0.77 0.075 10.34    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 20-year-olds 0.65 0.105 6.18    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 21-year-olds 0.33 0.128 2.58    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 22-year-olds 0.49 0.097 5.04    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 23-year-olds 0.55 0.075 7.32    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 24-year-olds 0.75 0.061 12.30    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 25- to 29-year-olds 0.87 0.035 25.13    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 30- to 34-year-olds 0.89 0.025 35.24    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 35- to 44-year-olds 0.89 0.027 32.56    
* p<.05.
~ Inconclusive.
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill.The regression method used to estimate the full-time equation was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method. The regression method used to estimate the part-time equation was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method with a first-order autocorrelation correction. The time period used to estimate the full-time equation was from 1980 to 2010 and that for the part-time equation was from 1981 to 2010. The number of observations for the full-time equation is 341 and the number of observations for the part-time equation, after the correction for autocorrelation, is 330. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model, 1980–2010. (This table was prepared February 2012.)

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