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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table A-5.  Actual and projected national public school grade progression rates: Fall 2010, and fall 2011 through fall 2021
Grade Actual 2010 Projected
2011 through 2021
1 to 2 99.2 99.2
2 to 3 100.6 100.4
3 to 4 100.1 100.1
4 to 5 100.4 100.4
5 to 6 100.8 100.7
6 to 7 100.9 100.8
7 to 8 100.5 100.3
8 to 9 109.7 109.7
9 to 10 93.1 93.1
10 to 11 92.9 92.9
11 to 12 98.0 98.0
NOTE: The progression rate for a particular grade in a year equals the enrollment in the grade for that year divided by the enrollment in the previous grade in the previous year all multiplied by 100. For example, the progression rate for third-graders in 2010 equals the enrollment of third-graders in 2010 divided by the enrollment of second-graders in 2009, all multiplied by 100.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2010–11; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972–2010. (This table was prepared January 2012.)

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