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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table A-1.  Summary of forecast assumptions to 2021
Variable   Assumption
Demographic assumptions    
     
Population   Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau estimates1
18- to 24-year-old population   Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 0.1%
25- to 29-year-old population   Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 0.6%
30- to 34-year-old population   Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 1.3%
35- to 44-year-old population   Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 0.6%
     
Economic assumptions    
     
Disposable income per capita in
   constant dollars
  Annual percent changes range between -1.9% and 2.2% with an annual growth rate of 1.4%
 
Education revenue receipts from
   state sources per capita in constant
   dollars
  Annual percent changes range between -2.4% and 2.3% with an annual growth rate of 1.3%
 
 
Inflation rate   Inflation rate ranges between 1.0% and 2.0%
     
Unemployment rate (men)    
     
Ages 18 and 19   Remains between 17.7% and 26.8%
Ages 20 to 24   Remains between 10.8% and 15.6%
Age 25 and over   Remains between 5.3% and 7.9%
     
Unemployment rate (women)    
     
Ages 18 and 19   Remains between 14.3% and 19.6%
Ages 20 to 24   Remains between 9.3% and 13.1%
Age 25 and over   Remains between 5.0% and 7.3%
1 As the Census Bureau projections were not updated to reflect the 2011 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau age-specific population projections for each year were adjusted by multiplying the ratio of the total Census Bureau estimate for 2011 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2011.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 16, 2011 from http://www.census.gov/popest/data/index.html; and 2008 National Population Projections, retrieved November 2, 2008, from http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/2008projections.html; and IHS Global Insight, "U.S. Monthly Model January 2012 Short-Term Projections." (This table was prepared March 2012.)

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