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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table 15.  Actual and projected percentage changes in public high school graduates, by region and state: School years 2003–04 through 2021–22
Region and state Actual 2003–04 to 2008–09   Projected
  2008–09 to 2015–16 2015–16 to 2021–22 2008–09 to 2021–22
United States 10.4   0.9 3.8 4.7
           
Northeast 13.9   -0.4 0.3 -0.1
Connecticut 1.1   0.6 -5.9 -5.3
Maine 6.1   -10.6 -3.2 -13.4
Massachusetts 11.9   -3.4 -1.6 -5.0
New Hampshire 10.9   -8.3 -6.6 -14.3
New Jersey 13.4   -3.9 -0.2 -4.1
New York 26.9   9.5 -0.5 9.0
Pennsylvania 5.8   -7.0 6.5 -0.9
Rhode Island 8.3   -7.6 -0.8 -8.3
Vermont 1.5   -16.4 -5.8 -21.2
           
Midwest 5.5   -6.0 1.6 -4.5
Illinois 5.5   -0.9 0.5 -0.4
Indiana 13.7   2.1 2.4 4.5
Iowa -1.2   -3.7 2.7 -1.1
Kansas 0.7   4.6 6.7 11.7
Michigan 14.1   -11.4 -5.5 -16.3
Minnesota 1.1   -5.3 10.0 4.1
Missouri 8.6   -2.0 0.8 -1.2
Nebraska -4.0   1.1 13.0 14.3
North Dakota -8.3   -2.5 12.8 9.9
Ohio 2.7   -17.0 -1.4 -18.2
South Dakota -9.8   0.2 8.8 9.1
Wisconsin 4.2   -7.8 3.7 -4.4
           
South 12.8   5.5 5.3 11.1
Alabama 15.4   4.5 1.5 6.1
Arkansas 3.2   3.3 3.5 6.9
Delaware 12.8   1.9 11.1 13.3
District of Columbia 16.0   -20.7 -9.7 -28.3
Florida 16.8   4.9 1.9 6.9
Georgia 28.4   7.2 1.9 10.0
Kentucky 10.8   -5.4 2.2 -3.3
Louisiana -3.8   -1.6 3.1 1.4
Maryland 10.3   -3.2 6.6 3.1
Mississippi 3.2   3.2 2.3 5.7
North Carolina 20.2   4.8 -2.9 1.8
Oklahoma 1.1   5.1 6.4 11.9
South Carolina 17.7   3.2 5.8 9.1
Tennessee 31.0   -0.4 3.7 3.3
Texas 8.2   14.7 11.8 28.2
Virginia 10.6   1.4 6.2 7.7
West Virginia 2.0   -3.8 1.3 -2.5
           
West 9.3   1.9 6.3 8.4
Alaska 10.7   -8.0 8.4 -0.2
Arizona 37.1   -5.3 12.4 6.4
California 8.4   -0.2 4.6 4.4
Colorado 6.0   11.7 11.5 24.5
Hawaii 11.5   -9.7 3.0 -7.0
Idaho 8.1   1.7 4.3 6.1
Montana -4.0   -10.1 5.7 -4.9
Nevada 30.9   28.0 3.6 32.5
New Mexico 0.2   5.1 9.0 14.6
Oregon 6.6   -0.5 1.1 0.6
Utah 0.7   13.3 15.4 30.7
Washington 2.4   6.5 5.1 12.0
Wyoming -5.8   3.2 10.8 14.3
NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-10, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2004–05 and 2009–10; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980–81 through 2008–09. (This table was prepared January 2012.)

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