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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table 13.  Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 1996–97 through 2021–22
School year Total   Race/ethnicity
  White Black Hispanic Asian/
Pacific Islander
American Indian/
Alaska Native
 
Actual              
1996–97 2,358,403   1,687,683 309,626 234,043 104,764 22,287
1997–98 2,439,050   1,733,478 317,846 252,023 112,089 23,614
1998–99 2,485,630   1,754,617 322,532 268,539 115,930 24,012
1999–2000 2,553,844   1,787,322 334,206 283,738 123,231 25,347
2000–01 2,569,200   1,782,294 336,375 297,696 126,847 25,988
2001–02 2,621,534   1,801,175 345,854 314,989 132,347 27,169
2002–03 2,719,947   1,857,954 359,051 339,555 135,614 27,773
2003–04 2,753,438   1,851,136 373,307 362,467 137,913 28,615
2004–05 2,799,250   1,856,760 385,180 382,964 143,751 30,595
2005–06 2,815,544   1,854,776 392,180 388,718 150,567 29,303
2006–07 2,893,045   1,884,020 412,698 410,587 154,935 30,805
2007–08 3,001,337   1,917,973 455,968 433,658 161,434 32,304
2008–09 1 3,039,015   1,900,999 486,653 454,289 164,659 32,415
Projected              
2009–10 3,068,550   1,877,780 500,390 489,330 167,350 33,690
2010–11 3,103,540   1,852,470 508,060 538,850 171,540 32,620
2011–12 3,100,510   1,823,190 505,250 564,160 174,840 33,080
2012–13 3,092,290   1,804,370 490,850 585,520 179,630 31,920
2013–14 3,037,040   1,780,630 463,570 582,940 179,900 30,010
2014–15 3,043,290   1,755,950 468,630 604,550 184,100 30,060
2015–16 3,066,000   1,761,910 467,850 622,060 182,960 31,220
2016–17 3,096,730   1,763,000 471,260 642,440 188,610 31,420
2017–18 3,148,670   1,768,990 478,830 667,990 201,290 31,570
2018–19 3,155,320   1,754,460 474,540 692,820 201,780 31,730
2019–20 3,136,780   1,729,150 466,060 703,310 206,420 31,840
2020–21 3,163,350   1,735,420 456,850 722,570 216,380 32,140
2021–22 3,183,360   1,731,420 456,020 741,310 222,420 32,190
1In the 2008–09 school year, five states reported high school graduate counts for graduates of two or more races. These high school graduate counts were proportioned across the other racial/ethnic categories. When more complete sets of data for high school graduates of two or more races are
compiled, separate projections for that category will be presented.
NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. The historical racial/ethnic time-series were constructed using racial/ethnic high school graduate data at the state level. In some instances, high school graduate data by race/ethnicity had to be imputed. Further, in some instances, the racial/ethnic data had to be adjusted in order for them to sum to the state total for high school graduates. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. For additional information see the High School Graduates section A.2 in appendix A. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1997–98 through 2009–10; and National Public Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates Model by Race/Ethnicity Model, 1972–73 through 2008–09. (This table was prepared January 2012.)

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