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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table 12.  Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 1996–97 through 2021–22
School year Total Public Private
Actual      
1996–97 2,611,988 2,358,403 253,585
1997–98 1 2,704,133 2,439,050 265,083
1998–99 2,758,655 2,485,630 273,025
1999–2000 1 2,832,656 2,553,844 278,812
2000–01 2,847,973 2,569,200 278,773
2001–02 1 2,906,287 2,621,534 284,753
2002–03 3,015,702 2,719,947 295,755
2003–04 1 3,054,247 2,753,438 300,809
2004–05 3,106,499 2,799,250 307,249
2005–06 1 3,119,258 2,815,544 303,714
2006–07 3,199,650 2,893,045 306,605
2007–08 1 3,312,870 3,001,337 311,533
2008–09 3,347,828 3,039,015 308,813
Projected      
2009–10 3,375,200 3,068,550 306,650
2010–11 3,402,920 3,103,540 299,380
2011–12 3,392,650 3,100,510 292,140
2012–13 3,375,660 3,092,290 283,370
2013–14 3,314,600 3,037,040 277,560
2014–15 3,307,080 3,043,290 263,790
2015–16 3,325,230 3,066,000 259,230
2016–17 3,347,990 3,096,730 251,260
2017–18 3,396,230 3,148,670 247,560
2018–19 3,396,260 3,155,320 240,940
2019–20 3,368,740 3,136,780 231,960
2020–21 3,392,510 3,163,350 229,160
2021–22 3,415,830 3,183,360 232,470
1 Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years and the numbers collected for high school graduates are for the preceding year, private school numbers for odd years are estimated based on data from the PSS.
NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1997–98 through 2009–10; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 1997–98 through 2009–10; and National Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates Model, 1972–73 through 2008–09. (This table was prepared January 2012.)

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