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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table 11.  Actual and projected percentage changes in grades 9–12 enrollment in public schools, by region and state: Fall 2003 through fall 2021
Region and state Actual
2003–2010
  Projected
  2010–2016 2016–2021 2010–2021
United States 3.6   1.7 2.6 4.4
           
Northeast -0.4   0.7 -0.2 0.6
Connecticut 2.2   -7.7 -2.7 -10.2
Maine -4.0   -8.2 0.8 -7.5
Massachusetts 0.3   -2.5 -1.3 -3.8
New Hampshire -3.4   -7.8 -1.8 -9.4
New Jersey 4.7   -3.8 -0.5 -4.2
New York -2.3   9.8 -2.3 7.2
Pennsylvania #   -2.1 4.6 2.4
Rhode Island -4.4   -9.9 5.7 -4.7
Vermont -10.8   -11.7 -0.1 -11.7
           
Midwest -1.4   -1.7 1.1 -0.6
Illinois 4.7   -1.5 -0.5 -2.0
Indiana 8.0   0.8 0.4 1.2
Iowa -4.4   -0.1 1.7 1.6
Kansas -4.9   4.3 3.9 8.3
Michigan -3.2   -7.8 -2.7 -10.3
Minnesota -3.8   0.9 8.3 9.3
Missouri 0.7   -0.8 1.8 1.0
Nebraska -2.1   5.4 7.3 13.2
North Dakota -11.9   -0.6 12.5 11.9
Ohio -6.3   -2.8 -1.7 -4.5
South Dakota -3.4   -1.4 8.0 6.5
Wisconsin -5.7   -1.8 3.6 1.7
           
South 7.5   5.1 2.6 7.8
Alabama 7.8   2.0 -1.4 0.6
Arkansas 2.5   4.6 0.3 5.0
Delaware 12.5   2.6 5.6 8.4
District of Columbia -4.5   -13.2 -9.2 -21.2
Florida 3.9   1.4 2.2 3.7
Georgia 13.2   5.4 1.6 7.1
Kentucky 4.1   0.9 -1.7 -0.8
Louisiana -3.7   4.5 -1.8 2.6
Maryland 0.3   -2.3 8.0 5.6
Mississippi 5.3   -2.1 -1.7 -3.8
North Carolina 11.9   7.5 -6.5 0.6
Oklahoma 0.3   6.1 3.6 10.0
South Carolina 5.9   5.7 1.4 7.1
Tennessee 9.3   2.1 1.0 3.1
Texas 12.5   11.7 7.5 20.1
Virginia 7.1   1.8 4.7 6.5
West Virginia -1.2   -0.2 -2.3 -2.5
           
West 5.8   0.6 5.9 6.5
Alaska -0.3   1.6 8.8 10.5
Arizona 3.9   # 8.7 8.7
California 6.8   -0.8 6.0 5.1
Colorado 9.4   7.8 6.2 14.4
Hawaii -2.8   -4.6 5.2 0.4
Idaho 6.5   4.0 3.0 7.1
Montana -10.4   -2.6 5.8 3.0
Nevada 24.1   4.0 4.1 8.2
New Mexico 1.8   5.1 5.8 11.2
Oregon 2.8   0.5 3.5 4.1
Utah 5.6   -0.4 1.9 1.5
Washington 2.3   2.1 6.4 8.6
Wyoming -5.3   5.9 7.8 14.1
# Rounds to zero.          
NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers.Mean absolute percentage errors of 9-12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-9, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” selected years, 2003–04 through 2010–11; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2010. (This table was prepared January 2012.)

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