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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table 9.  Actual and projected percentage changes in grades PK–8 enrollment in public schools, by region and state: Fall 2003 through fall 2021
Region and state Actual
2003–2010
  Projected
  2010–2016 2016–2021 2010–2021
United States 1.2   4.1 4.4 8.6
           
Northeast -3.7   0.9 2.0 2.9
Connecticut -5.0   -1.4 3.5 2.1
Maine -7.5   1.7 2.6 4.3
Massachusetts -3.7   -1.4 1.3 -0.1
New Hampshire -7.4   0.4 7.1 7.5
New Jersey 0.3   -0.9 1.9 1.0
New York -5.5   0.4 0.6 1.0
Pennsylvania -2.1   4.8 3.0 7.9
Rhode Island -12.1   4.1 5.1 9.4
Vermont 1.9   3.7 6.6 10.6
           
Midwest -2.0   1.8 1.9 3.8
Illinois -2.5   0.7 1.4 2.1
Indiana 1.8   1.4 2.2 3.6
Iowa 6.5   1.4 -0.8 0.6
Kansas 6.3   3.6 1.2 4.8
Michigan -12.5   -0.8 2.4 1.6
Minnesota 1.0   9.9 7.3 17.9
Missouri 1.7   1.9 1.8 3.8
Nebraska 7.6   5.6 0.3 5.9
North Dakota -2.7   7.6 -0.7 6.9
Ohio -4.3   -1.0 # -1.0
South Dakota 2.2   5.3 0.7 6.1
Wisconsin 1.5   4.9 3.6 8.6
           
South 6.0   4.4 4.7 9.3
Alabama 1.6   -0.8 -0.3 -1.1
Arkansas 7.6   0.6 1.0 1.5
Delaware 8.9   7.4 3.5 11.1
District of Columbia -10.0   -8.2 -5.4 -13.2
Florida 1.4   5.2 8.5 14.2
Georgia 9.0   4.0 5.5 9.8
Kentucky 0.4   -1.3 -1.0 -2.3
Louisiana -4.5   -0.8 -2.4 -3.2
Maryland -2.9   8.9 8.2 17.8
Mississippi -2.8   -2.5 -3.4 -5.8
North Carolina 8.7   -0.6 6.4 5.8
Oklahoma 7.4   2.7 0.4 3.1
South Carolina 3.0   2.9 2.3 5.2
Tennessee 3.9   2.7 4.2 7.0
Texas 14.5   9.2 6.3 16.0
Virginia 4.1   6.1 6.0 12.4
West Virginia 1.3   -4.6 -6.4 -10.7
           
West 0.3   7.6 7.3 15.4
Alaska -1.8   13.2 12.0 26.8
Arizona 6.8   12.2 11.4 25.0
California -5.3   7.0 6.7 14.2
Colorado 12.1   7.4 4.9 12.6
Hawaii -1.9   3.4 # 3.5
Idaho 10.7   6.1 5.3 11.8
Montana -1.7   5.4 1.5 7.0
Nevada 9.5   9.7 14.8 26.0
New Mexico 5.9   6.5 1.4 8.0
Oregon 3.8   7.1 8.4 16.1
Utah 20.0   4.7 4.7 9.6
Washington 2.1   8.8 10.3 20.0
Wyoming 5.1   4.7 -4.1 0.4
# Rounds to zero.
NOTE: PK=prekindergarten. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers.Mean absolute percentage errors of PK-8 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-8, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” selected years, 2002–03 through 2010–11; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2010. (This table was prepared Febuary 2012.)

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