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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table 7.  Actual and projected percentage changes in grades PK–12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region and state: Fall 2003 through fall 2021
Region and state Actual
2003–2010
  Projected
  2010–2016 2016–2021 2010–2021
United States 1.9   3.4 3.8 7.3
           
Northeast -2.7   0.9 1.3 2.2
Connecticut -2.9   -3.3 1.7 -1.7
Maine -6.4   -1.5 2.0 0.5
Massachusetts -2.5   -1.7 0.5 -1.2
New Hampshire -6.1   -2.2 4.4 2.0
New Jersey 1.6   -1.7 1.2 -0.6
New York -4.5   3.3 -0.4 2.9
Pennsylvania -1.5   2.5 3.5 6.1
Rhode Island -9.8   -0.4 5.3 4.9
Vermont -2.3   -0.9 4.9 4.0
           
Midwest -1.8   0.7 1.7 2.4
Illinois -0.4   # 0.8 0.8
Indiana 3.6   1.2 1.7 2.9
Iowa 3.0   0.9 # 0.9
Kansas 2.8   3.8 2.0 5.8
Michigan -9.7   -3.1 0.8 -2.2
Minnesota -0.6   7.0 7.6 15.1
Missouri 1.4   1.1 1.8 3.0
Nebraska 4.5   5.5 2.4 8.1
North Dakota -5.8   5.1 3.2 8.4
Ohio -4.9   -1.6 -0.5 -2.1
South Dakota 0.5   3.3 2.8 6.2
Wisconsin -0.9   2.8 3.6 6.5
           
South 6.4   4.6 4.1 8.9
Alabama 3.3   # -0.6 -0.6
Arkansas 6.1   1.7 0.8 2.5
Delaware 10.0   5.9 4.1 10.3
District of Columbia -8.7   -9.5 -6.3 -15.2
Florida 2.2   4.1 6.7 11.1
Georgia 10.1   4.4 4.4 9.0
Kentucky 1.5   -0.7 -1.2 -1.9
Louisiana -4.3   0.6 -2.2 -1.6
Maryland -1.9   5.4 8.2 14.0
Mississippi -0.6   -2.4 -2.9 -5.2
North Carolina 9.6   1.8 2.5 4.3
Oklahoma 5.4   3.6 1.3 4.9
South Carolina 3.8   3.7 2.0 5.8
Tennessee 5.4   2.5 3.3 5.9
Texas 13.9   9.9 6.6 17.2
Virginia 5.0   4.8 5.6 10.6
West Virginia 0.6   -3.4 -5.2 -8.3
           
West 2.0   5.4 6.9 12.7
Alaska -1.4   9.7 11.1 21.9
Arizona 5.9   8.6 10.7 20.1
California -1.8   4.5 6.5 11.3
Colorado 11.3   7.5 5.3 13.1
Hawaii -2.2   1.1 1.4 2.6
Idaho 9.4   5.5 4.7 10.4
Montana -4.5   3.0 2.7 5.8
Nevada 13.4   8.0 11.8 20.7
New Mexico 4.7   6.1 2.7 8.9
Oregon 3.5   5.1 6.9 12.4
Utah 15.7   3.3 4.0 7.4
Washington 2.2   6.7 9.1 16.4
Wyoming 1.8   5.1 -0.6 4.4
# Rounds to zero.
NOTE: PK=prekindergarten. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of PK-12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” selected years, 2003–04 through 2010–11; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2010. (This table was prepared January 2012.)

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