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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table 4.  Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades PK–8 in public schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 1996 through fall 2021
[In thousands]
Year Total   Race/ethnicity
  White Black Hispanic Asian/
Pacific Islander1
American Indian/
Alaska Native
Two or more races2
 
Actual                
1996 32,762   20,687 5,664 4,821 1,204 386
1997 33,071   20,625 5,782 5,030 1,244 390
1998 33,344   20,548 5,861 5,274 1,275 386
1999 33,486   20,313 5,948 5,529 1,305 391
2000 33,686   20,123 5,980 5,838 1,348 397
2001 33,936   19,954 6,002 6,167 1,408 405
2002 34,114   19,760 6,040 6,453 1,446 415
2003 34,201   19,554 6,013 6,736 1,482 415
2004 34,178   19,266 5,992 6,988 1,519 413
2005 34,204   19,047 5,953 7,223 1,569 412
2006 34,235   18,859 5,880 7,470 1,611 414
2007 34,205   18,678 5,821 7,636 1,660 412
2008 3 34,286   18,500 5,793 7,695 1,703 410 185
2009 4 34,418   18,352 5,742 7,924 1,736 414 251
2010 34,625   17,823 5,494 8,319 1,710 394 884
Projected                
2011 34,849   17,773 5,530 8,461 1,768 405 911
2012 35,076   17,726 5,548 8,633 1,820 411 938
2013 35,301   17,681 5,571 8,800 1,871 417 963
2014 35,502   17,634 5,591 8,954 1,911 424 988
2015 35,735   17,613 5,625 9,099 1,955 431 1,012
2016 36,029   17,626 5,677 9,254 1,997 440 1,037
2017 36,329   17,637 5,744 9,405 2,032 448 1,062
2018 36,639   17,657 5,817 9,556 2,064 457 1,088
2019 36,956   17,671 5,869 9,751 2,088 464 1,114
2020 37,278   17,688 5,917 9,952 2,111 470 1,140
2021 37,598   17,706 5,958 10,158 2,134 475 1,167
—Not available. Prior to 2008, “two or more races” was not an available category.
1In 2008 and 2009, some students of both Asian origin and Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander origin were included in the two or more races category.
In 2010, all students of both Asian origin and Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander origin were included in the two or more races category. For more
information, see the Elementary and Secondary Enrollment section A.1 in the appendix.
2A person who has identified himself or herself of two or more of the following race groups: White, Black, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific
Islander, or American Indian or Alaska Native.
3Five states reported enrollment counts for students of two or more races.
4Fourteen states reported enrollment counts for students of two or more races.
NOTE: PK=prekindergarten. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. The historical racial/ethnic time-series were constructed using racial/ethnic enrollment data at the state level for individual grades. In some instances, enrollment data by race/ethnicity had to be imputed. Further, in some instances, the racial/ethnic enrollment data for individual grades had to be adjusted in order for them to sum to the state total for that grade. For additional information, see the Elementary and Secondary Enrollment section A.1 in Appendix A. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1996–97 through 2010–11; and National Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Model, 1994–2010. (This table was prepared January 2012.)

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