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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013


Table 1.  Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in grades PK–12, PK–8, and 9–12 in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 1996 through fall 2021
[In thousands]
Year Total   Public   Private
PK–121 PK–81 9–12   PK–12 PK–8 9–12   PK–121 PK–81 9–12
Actual                      
1996 2 51,544 37,481 14,062   45,611 32,762 12,849   5,933 4,719 1,213
1997 52,071 37,797 14,275   46,127 33,071 13,056   5,944 4,726 1,219
1998 2 52,526 38,091 14,435   46,539 33,344 13,195   5,988 4,747 1,240
1999 52,875 38,251 14,625   46,857 33,486 13,371   6,018 4,764 1,254
2000 2 53,373 38,564 14,809   47,204 33,686 13,517   6,169 4,877 1,292
2001 53,992 38,929 15,063   47,672 33,936 13,736   6,320 4,993 1,327
2002 2 54,403 39,000 15,404   48,183 34,114 14,069   6,220 4,886 1,335
2003 54,639 38,962 15,678   48,540 34,201 14,339   6,099 4,761 1,338
2004 2 54,882 38,908 15,974   48,795 34,178 14,618   6,087 4,731 1,356
2005 55,187 38,903 16,283   49,113 34,204 14,909   6,073 4,699 1,374
2006 2 55,307 38,838 16,469   49,316 34,235 15,081   5,991 4,604 1,388
2007 55,203 38,722 16,481   49,293 34,205 15,087   5,910 4,517 1,394
2008 2 54,973 38,620 16,353   49,266 34,286 14,980   5,707 4,335 1,373
2009 54,862 38,569 16,293   49,373 34,418 14,955   5,488 4,151 1,338
2010 2 54,876 38,716 16,160   49,484 34,625 14,860   5,391 4,091 1,300
Projected                      
2011 54,956 38,909 16,047   49,636 34,849 14,787   5,320 4,060 1,260
2012 55,091 39,115 15,976   49,828 35,076 14,752   5,263 4,039 1,224
2013 55,288 39,334 15,954   50,067 35,301 14,766   5,221 4,033 1,188
2014 55,599 39,539 16,060   50,407 35,502 14,905   5,192 4,037 1,155
2015 55,957 39,788 16,169   50,773 35,735 15,038   5,183 4,053 1,130
2016 56,330 40,114 16,217   51,146 36,029 15,116   5,185 4,085 1,100
2017 56,722 40,451 16,271   51,524 36,329 15,195   5,198 4,122 1,076
2018 57,098 40,797 16,301   51,880 36,639 15,241   5,218 4,158 1,061
2019 57,507 41,149 16,358   52,260 36,956 15,304   5,247 4,193 1,054
2020 57,975 41,506 16,469   52,688 37,278 15,410   5,287 4,228 1,059
2021 58,444 41,861 16,583   53,113 37,598 15,515   5,331 4,263 1,068
1 Includes private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades.
2 Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS.
NOTE: PK=prekindergarten. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1996–97 through 2010–11; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 1997–98 through 2009–10; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972–2010. (This table was prepared January 2012.)

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