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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013

Section 2. High School Graduates: State and Regional (Public School Data)



Figure 8. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2008-09 through 2021-22

Figure 8.	Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2008-09 through 2021-22


NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-10, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2009-10; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980-81 through 2008-09. (This figure was prepared February 2012.)

High school graduates by state

The expected 5 percent national increase in public high school graduates between 2008-09 and 2021-22 plays out differently among the states.

  • High school graduates are projected to be higher in 2021-22 than in 2008-09 for 31 states, with projected high school graduates
    • 5 percent or more higher in 23 states; and
    • less than 5 percent higher in 8 states.
  • High school graduates are projected to be lower in 2021-22 than in 2008-09 for 19 states and the District of Columbia, with projected high school graduates
    • 5 percent or more lower in 8 states and the District of Columbia; and
    • less than 5 percent lower in 11 states.

For more information: Tables 14 and 15

Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 2003-04, 2008-09, and 2021-22

Figure 9.	Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 2003-04, 2008-09, and 2021-22


NOTE: See the glossary for a list of states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-10, appendix A. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2004-05 and 2009-10; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980-81 through 2008-09. (This figure was prepared February 2012.)

High school graduates by region

The number of public high school graduates is projected to

  • be less than 1 percent lower in 2021-22 than in 2008-09 in the Northeast;
  • decrease 4 percent in betwee 2008-09 and 2021-22 in the Midwest;
  • increase 11 percent between 2008-09 and 2021-22 in the South; and
  • increase 8 percent between 2008- 09 and 2021-22 in the West.

For more information: Tables 14 and 15




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National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces.ed.gov
U.S. Department of Education