Skip Navigation
small NCES header image
Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013

Section 2. High School Graduates: National



Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 1996-97 through 2021-22

Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 1996-97 through 2021-22


NOTE: Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd- numbered years and the numbers collected for high school graduates are for the preceding year, private school numbers for odd years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 1996-97 through 2009-10; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 1997- 98 through 2009-10; and National Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates Enrollment Model, 1972-73 through 2008-09. (This figure was prepared February 2012.)

The total number of high school graduates

  • increased 28 percent between 1996-97 and 2008-09, a period of 12 years; and
  • is projected to be 2 percent higher in 2021-22 than in 2008-09.

The number of public high school graduates

  • increased 29 percent between 1996-97 and 2008-09; and
  • is projected to increase 5 percent between 2008-09 and 2021-22.

The number of private high school graduates

  • increased 22 percent between 1996-97 and 2008-09; and
  • is projected to decrease 25 percent between 2008-09 and 2021-22.

For more information: Table 12

Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 1996-97 through 2021-22

Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 1996-97 through 2021-22


NOTE: The historical racial/ethnic time series were constructed using racial/ethnic high school graduate data at the state level. In some instances, high school graduate data by race/ethnicity had to be imputed. Further, in some instances, the racial/ethnic data had to be adjusted in order for them to sum to the state total for high school graduates. For additional information, see the High School Graduates section A.2 in appendix A. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 1997-98 through 2009-10; and National Public Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Model, 1995-96 through 2009-10. (This figure was prepared February 2012.)

High school graduates by race/ethnicity

The number of public high school graduates is projected to

  • decrease 9 percent between 2008-09 and 2020-21 for students who are White;
  • decrease 6 percent between 2008-09 and 2020-21 for students who are Black;
  • increase 63 percent between 2008-09 and 2020-21 for students who are Hispanic;
  • increase 35 percent between 2008-09 and 2020-21 for students who are Asian/Pacific Islander; and
  • be 1 percent lower in 2021-22 than in 2008-09 for students who are American Indian/Alaska Native.

For more information: Table 13


Would you like to help us improve our products and website by taking a short survey?

YES, I would like to take the survey

or

No Thanks

The survey consists of a few short questions and takes less than one minute to complete.