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Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

NCES 2013-008
January 2013

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: State and Regional (Public School Data)



Figure 4. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2010 through fall 2021

Figure 4. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2010 through fall 2021


NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2010-11; and State Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980-2010. (This figure was prepared February 2012.)

Enrollment by state

The expected 7 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2010 and 2021 plays out differently among the states.

  • Enrollments are projected to be higher in 2021 than in 2010 for 40 states, with projected enrollments
    • 5 percent or more higher in 26 states; and
    • less than 5 percent higher in 14 states.
  • Enrollments are projected to be lower in 2021 than in 2010 for 10 states and the District of Columbia, with projected enrollments
    • 5 percent or more lower in
    • 2 states and the District of Columbia; and
    • less than 5 percent lower in 8 states.

For more information: Tables 6 through 11

Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2003, fall 2010, and fall 2021

Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2003, fall 2010, and fall 2021


NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. See the glossary for a list of the states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2003-04 and 2010-11; and State Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980-2010. (This figure was prepared February 2012.)

Enrollment by region

Between 2010 and 2021, public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to

  • increase 2 percent in the Northeast;
  • increase 2 percent in the Midwest;
  • increase 9 percent in the South; and
  • increase 13 percent in the West.

For more information: Tables 6 through 11


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