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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table A-30.  Estimated equations and model statistics for degrees conferred, by degree type and sex

Dependent variable Equation1 R2 Breusch-Godfrey
Serial Correlation LM
test statistic2
Time period
                           
Associate's degrees, men DASSOCM =   1,907 + 89DUGFT2M + 58DUGFT2ML2     0.51 0.13 (0.951) 1980–81 to
      (2.3)   (4.4)   (3.0)         2008–09
                           
Associate's degrees, women DLOGASSOCW =   # + 0.7DLOGUGFT2WS3 + .5MA(1)     0.59 0.02 (0.992) 1980–81 to
        (3.9)   (2.9)         2008–09
                           
Bachelor's degrees, men DBACHM =   667 + 82DUGFT4M + 141DUGFT4ML2     0.81 1.462(0.445) 1980–81 to
      (0.70)   (3.6)   (5.8)         2008–09
                           
Bachelor's degrees, women DBACHW =   3772 + 87DUGFT4W + 108DUGFT4WL2     0.62 0.76 (0.684) 1980–81 to
      (1.7)   (2.8)   (3.2)         2008–09
                           
Master's degrees, men PCHMASTM =   # + 0.6PCHPBFTM + 0.5PCHPBFTML1 + 0.4AR(1) 0.67 2.98 (0.226) 1970–71 to
        (4.38)   (3.71)   (2.66)     2008–09
                           
Master's degrees, women PCHMASTW =   # + 0.4PCHPBFTW + 0.6AR(1)     0.60 1.13 (0.579) 1970–71 to
        (2.35)   (3.79)         2008–09
                           
First-professional degrees,
Firmen
DFPROM =   91 + 162DFPBFTML1 + 89DFPBFTML2     0.61 3.34 (0.188) 1971–72 to
      (0.5)   (5.2)   (3.0)         2008–09
                           
First-professional degrees,
Firwomen
DFPROW =   44 + 123DFPBFTWL1 + 165DFPBFTWL2     0.51 2.97 (0.23) 1971–72 to
      (0.2)   (2.5)   (3.8)         2008–09
# Rounds to zero.
† Not applicable.
1 AR(1) indicates that the model was estimated to account for first-order autocorrelation. To estimate the model, it was first transformed into a nonlinear model and then the coefficients were estimated simultaneously by applying a Marquardt nonlinear least squares algorithm to the transformed equation. MA(1) indicates that the model was estimated to incorporate moving average of the residual into model fit. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see Judge, G., Hill, W., Griffiths, R., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T. (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley and Sons, pp. 315–318.
2 The number in parentheses is the probability of the Chi-Square(2) associated with the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test. A p value greater that 0.05 implies that we do not reject the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation at the 5 percent significance level for a two-tailed test or 10 percent significance level for a one-tailed test, (i.e., there is no autocorrelation present). For an explanation of the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test statistic, see Greene, W. (2000). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
NOTE: R2 is the coefficient of determination. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics. There are no equations for doctor's degrees for men and women as projections of those items were obtained using double exponential smoothing.
DASSOCM = First difference of associate's degrees awarded to men.
DLOGASSOCW = First difference of the log of associate's degrees awarded to women.
DBACHM = First difference of bachelor's degrees awarded to men.
DBACHW = First difference of bachelor's degrees awarded to women.
PCHMASTM = Percentage change in master's degrees awarded to men.
PCHMASTW = Percentage change in master's degrees awarded to women.
DFPROM = First difference of first-professional degrees awarded to men.
DFPROW = First difference of first-professional degrees awarded to women.
DUGFT2M = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions.
DUGFT2ML2 = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged two periods.
DLOGUGFT2WS3= First difference of the sum of the full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions over the present year and the previous 2 years.
DUGFT4M = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions.
DUGFT4ML2 = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions, lagged two periods.
DUGFT4W = First difference of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions.
DUGFT4WL2 = First difference of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions, lagged two periods.
PCHPBFTM = Percentage change in full-time male postbaccalaureate enrollment.
PCHPBFTML1 = Percentage change in full-time male postbaccalaureate enrollment lagged one year.
PCHPBFTW = Percentage change in full-time female postbaccalaureate enrollment.
DFPBTML1 = First difference of full-time male postbaccalaureate enrollment lagged one year.
DFPBTML2 = First difference of full-time male postbaccalaureate enrollment lagged two years.
DFPBTWL1 = First difference of full-time female postbaccalaureate enrollment lagged one year.
DFPBTWL2 = First difference of full-time female postbaccalaureate enrollment lagged two years.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Degrees Conferred Model, 1970–71 through 2008–09. (This table was prepared March 2011.)

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