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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table A-18.  Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time college enrollment rates of women

Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W.
statistic
           
Full-time          
           
Intercept term for 17-year-olds -9.48 0.181 -52.48 1.00 1.29**
Intercept term for 18-year-olds -6.70 0.163 -41.05    
Intercept term for 19-year-olds -6.58 0.159 -41.37    
Intercept term for 20-year-olds -6.70 0.159 -42.22    
Intercept term for 21-year-olds -6.92 0.159 -43.57    
Intercept term for 22-year-olds -7.58 0.160 -47.26    
Intercept term for 23-year-olds -8.08 0.162 -49.98    
Intercept term for 24-year-olds -8.46 0.163 -51.90    
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds -9.05 0.164 -55.20    
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds -9.76 0.162 -60.11    
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds -9.98 0.163 -61.28    
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita          
disposable income in 2000 dollars, using the present          
period and the previous two periods 1.17 0.031 37.27    
Log age-specific unemployment rate for women 0.28 0.041 6.79    
           
Part-time          
           
Intercept term for 17-year-olds -11.18 0.500 -22.38 0.99 1.88*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds -8.46 0.297 -28.54    
Intercept term for 19-year-olds -7.95 0.287 -27.73    
Intercept term for 20-year-olds -8.12 0.284 -28.56    
Intercept term for 21-year-olds -8.12 0.280 -29.06    
Intercept term for 22-year-olds -8.29 0.280 -29.58    
Intercept term for 23-year-olds -8.36 0.282 -29.63    
Intercept term for 24-year-olds -8.42 0.286 -29.46    
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds -8.88 0.295 -30.08    
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds -9.25 0.292 -31.70    
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds -8.95 0.296 -30.23    
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita          
disposable income in 2000 dollars, using the present          
period and the previous two periods 1.01 0.044 22.70    
Log unemployment rate 0.14 0.024 5.85    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 17-year-olds 0.82 0.074 11.11    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 18-year-olds 0.75 0.082 9.11    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 19-year-olds 0.77 0.071 10.71    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 20-year-olds 0.60 0.105 5.74    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 21-year-olds 0.30 0.123 2.39    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 22-year-olds 0.44 0.097 4.57    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 23-year-olds 0.52 0.077 6.82    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 24-year-olds 0.74 0.063 11.74    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 25- to 29-year-olds 0.89 0.034 25.99    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 30- to 34-year-olds 0.89 0.026 33.81    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 35- to 44-year-olds 0.89 0.026 34.19    
* p<.05.
** inconclusive
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill.The regression method used to estimate the full-time equation was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method. The regression method used to estimate the part-time equation was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method with a first-order autocorrelation correction. The time period used to estimate the full-time equation was from 1980 to 2009 and that for the part-time equation was from 1981 to 2009. The number of observations for the full-time equation is 330 and the number of observations for the part-time equation, after the correction for autocorrelation, is 319. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model, 1980–2008. (This table was prepared March 2011.)

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