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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table A-14.  Actual and projected continuation rates of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age and control of school: Selected years, 1993–94 to 1994–95 through 2020–21 to 2021-22

Control of school
and school year
Total Continuation rates, by age
Less than
25 years
25-29
years
30-39
years
40-49
years
50-59
years
60-64
years
65 years
or more
                                   
Public actual                                  
1993–94 to 1994–95 93.4 (0.36) 96.2 (1.09) 90.0 (1.22) 93.3 (1.03) 96.1 (0.54) 93.7 (0.77) 69.5   (4.79) 65.9 (8.81)
1999–2000 to 2000–01 92.4 (0.38) 95.8 (0.98) 89.3 (7.38) 93.2 (2.76) 94.5 (0.61) 92.9 (4.58) 76.8 ! (29.18) (‡) (†)
2003–04 to 2004–05 91.4 (0.55) 94.9 (1.79) 90.1 (1.71) 92.6 (0.93) 94.5 (0.78) 90.8 (0.81) 77.2   (3.00) 70.3 (9.40)
2007–08 to 2008–09 91.8 (0.45) 92.2 (1.95) 89.0 (2.33) 92.4 (1.29) 95.1 (1.06) 92.3 (1.23) 82.8   (3.97) 88.9 (4.26)
                                   
Public projected                                  
2008–09 to 2009–10 90.7 (†) 88.9 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.1 (†) 91.4 (†) 76.5   (†) 65.0 (†)
2009–10 to 2010–11 90.6 (†) 89.2 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 93.9 (†) 91.4 (†) 76.4   (†) 64.6 (†)
2010–11 to 2011–12 90.6 (†) 88.7 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.0 (†) 91.4 (†) 76.2   (†) 63.7 (†)
2011–12 to 2012–13 90.5 (†) 89.0 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.1 (†) 91.4 (†) 76.1   (†) 62.6 (†)
2012–13 to 2013–14 90.5 (†) 88.9 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.1 (†) 91.4 (†) 76.1   (†) 63.3 (†)
2013–14 to 2014–15 90.5 (†) 88.9 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.1 (†) 91.5 (†) 76.0   (†) 63.1 (†)
2014–15 to 2015–16 90.5 (†) 88.8 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.0 (†) 91.5 (†) 75.8   (†) 64.4 (†)
2015–16 to 2016–17 90.6 (†) 88.9 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.1 (†) 91.5 (†) 75.8   (†) 64.1 (†)
2016–17 to 2017–18 90.6 (†) 88.9 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.2 (†) 91.6 (†) 75.9   (†) 63.8 (†)
2017–18 to 2018–19 90.6 (†) 89.0 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.1 (†) 91.6 (†) 75.9   (†) 63.8 (†)
2018–19 to 2019–20 90.7 (†) 89.0 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.1 (†) 91.6 (†) 75.9   (†) 63.9 (†)
2019–20 to 2020–21 90.7 (†) 88.9 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.6 (†) 94.1 (†) 91.6 (†) 75.9   (†) 63.7 (†)
2020–21 to 2021–22 90.7 (†) 89.0 (†) 89.0 (†) 92.5 (†) 94.0 (†) 91.6 (†) 76.0   (†) 63.4 (†)
                                   
Private actual                                  
1993–94 to 1994–95 88.1 (0.74) 80.0 (4.42) 86.9 (1.64) 85.1 (1.70) 91.3 (1.14) 91.8 (1.52) 86.9   (2.74) 58.1 (8.67)
1999–2000 to 2000–01 83.0 (0.72) 61.7 (4.90) 72.2 (2.76) 80.2 (1.57) 86.1 (1.47) 92.3 (1.00) 78.8   (4.79) 75.2 (5.17)
2003–04 to 2004–05 83.3 (2.06) 75.4 (5.97) 71.7 (3.62) 82.2 (2.30) 86.8 (2.28) 89.2 (9.17) 80.1   (4.15) 79.5 (6.07)
2007–08 to 2008–09 82.2 (1.69) 77.7 (8.33) 71.7 (6.44) 79.1 (3.43) 86.1 (2.92) 86.8 (2.17) 85.2   (4.21) 77.3 (8.23)
                                   
Private projected                                  
2008–09 to 2009–10 82.3 (†) 68.5 (†) 73.1 (†) 80.5 (†) 86.2 (†) 87.7 (†) 80.7   (†) 78.4 (†)
2009–10 to 2010–11 82.1 (†) 68.2 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.5 (†) 86.2 (†) 87.7 (†) 79.9   (†) 74.6 (†)
2010–11 to 2011–12 82.2 (†) 68.1 (†) 73.4 (†) 80.4 (†) 86.1 (†) 87.8 (†) 79.4   (†) 76.7 (†)
2011–12 to 2012–13 82.2 (†) 67.8 (†) 73.3 (†) 80.3 (†) 86.2 (†) 87.8 (†) 80.1   (†) 75.0 (†)
2012–13 to 2013–14 82.2 (†) 68.0 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.3 (†) 86.1 (†) 87.7 (†) 80.4   (†) 75.3 (†)
2013–14 to 2014–15 82.3 (†) 68.0 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.3 (†) 86.3 (†) 87.8 (†) 80.0   (†) 76.9 (†)
2014–15 to 2015–16 82.2 (†) 68.0 (†) 73.1 (†) 80.3 (†) 86.2 (†) 87.8 (†) 79.8   (†) 76.4 (†)
2015–16 to 2016–17 82.2 (†) 67.9 (†) 73.1 (†) 80.3 (†) 86.3 (†) 87.6 (†) 80.3   (†) 75.7 (†)
2016–17 to 2017–18 82.2 (†) 67.9 (†) 73.1 (†) 80.4 (†) 86.2 (†) 87.8 (†) 80.4   (†) 76.2 (†)
2017–18 to 2018–19 82.2 (†) 67.9 (†) 73.1 (†) 80.3 (†) 86.3 (†) 87.8 (†) 80.2   (†) 76.0 (†)
2018–19 to 2019–20 82.2 (†) 67.9 (†) 73.1 (†) 80.3 (†) 86.3 (†) 87.7 (†) 80.3   (†) 75.6 (†)
2019–20 to 2020–21 82.1 (†) 67.9 (†) 73.1 (†) 80.3 (†) 86.3 (†) 87.7 (†) 80.0   (†) 76.0 (†)
2020–21 to 2021–22 82.1 (†) 67.9 (†) 73.1 (†) 80.3 (†) 86.3 (†) 87.7 (†) 80.1   (†) 76.1 (†)
†Not applicable.
! Interpret with caution. The coefficient of variation (CV) for this estimate is 30 percent or greater.
‡ Reporting standards not met. The coefficient of variation (CV) for this estimate is 50 percent or greater.
NOTE: The continuation rate for teachers for each control of school (public schools and private schools) is the percentage of teachers in that control who continued teaching in the same control from one year to the next. Standard errors appear in parentheses.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Teacher Follow up Survey (TFS), "Public School Teacher Questionnaire," 1994–95 through 2008–09 and "Private School Teacher Questionnaire," 1994–95 through 2008–09; and unpublished tabulations. (This tables was prepared January 2011.)

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