Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table A-10.  Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for the projected number of high school graduates in public schools, by lead time, region, and state: 2011 (Table 10—Continued)

Region and state Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                     
United States 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.7 4.2 4.0
                     
Northeast 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.5
Connecticut 1.6 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.3 2.9 3.8 3.9
Maine 2.9 4.6 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.7 7.3 8.3 9.6
Massachusetts 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.4
New Hampshire 1.1 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.5 3.8 4.4 4.0 3.8
New Jersey 2.5 4.4 5.5 5.1 5.2 6.4 7.2 8.9 10.8 11.8
New York 2.0 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.2 4.9 6.0 5.6 6.0
Pennsylvania 1.7 2.2 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.5 2.9
Rhode Island 1.4 1.1 2.0 1.9 2.4 3.2 4.7 5.4 5.2 5.1
Vermont 2.0 2.3 3.5 4.5 6.2 6.3 6.9 7.6 8.2 8.3
                     
Midwest 1.0 0.7 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.3 1.9
Illinois 2.7 2.2 3.3 4.2 4.4 3.8 6.2 4.6 6.6 8.1
Indiana 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.4 3.5 3.8 4.5 3.8
Iowa 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.8 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.6 3.0 2.6
Kansas 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.5 4.8 5.3 4.6
Michigan 3.5 4.5 5.4 6.6 6.7 6.9 8.5 8.6 8.1 8.5
Minnesota 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.6 4.9 5.0
Missouri 1.0 1.5 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.4
Nebraska 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.7
North Dakota 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.5 3.4 4.6 6.5
Ohio 1.7 1.5 2.9 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.1 4.4
South Dakota 2.5 3.1 3.5 5.9 9.6 10.8 12.7 14.3 17.3 18.1
Wisconsin 1.4 1.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.7 4.0 4.6 4.4 3.8
See notes at end of table. (Table 10—Continued)