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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table A-1.  Summary of forecast assumptions to 2020

Variable   Assumption
     
Demographic assumptions    
     
Population   Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau estimates1
18- to 24-year-old population   Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 0.1%
25- to 29-year-old population   Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 0.7%
30- to 34-year-old population   Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 1.4%
35- to 44-year-old population   Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 0.4%
     
Economic assumptions    
     
Disposable income per capita in
constant dollars
  Annual percent changes range between 0.1% and 2.6% with an annual growth rate of 1.3%
 
Education revenue receipts from state
sources per capita in constant dollars
  Annual percent changes range between -1.6% and 2.7% with an annual growth rate of 1.2%
 
Inflation rate   Inflation rate ranges between 1.0% and 2.2%
     
Unemployment rate (men)    
     
Ages 18 and 19   Remains between 17.4% and 28.4%
Ages 20 to 24   Remains between 10.3% and 17.8%
Age 25 and over   Remains between 4.6% and 8.4%
     
Unemployment rate (women)    
     
Ages 18 and 19   Remains between 13.1% and 20.4%
Ages 20 to 24   Remains between 8.1% and 13.1%
Age 25 and over   Remains between 4.3% and 7.0%
1 As the Census Bureau projections were not updated to reflect the 2010 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau age-specific population projections for each year were adjusted by multiplying the ratio of the total Census Bureau estimate for 2010 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2010.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 4, 2010 from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/; and Population Projections, retrieved November 2, 2008, from http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/2008projections.html; and IHS Global Insight, "U.S. Monthly Model November 2010 Short-Term Projections." (This table was prepared March 2011.)

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