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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table B-5.  Actual and projected fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, change in
fall enrollment from previous year, resident population, and fall enrollment as a ratio of the population:
School years 1995–96 through 2020–21

School year Fall enrollment
(in thousands)
Change in fall
enrollment from
previous year
(in thousands)
Resident population
(in millions)
Fall enrollment
as a ratio of
the population
Actual        
1995–96 44,840 729 266.6 0.168
1996–97 45,611 771 269.7 0.169
1997–98 46,127 516 272.9 0.169
1998–99 46,539 412 276.1 0.169
1999–2000 46,857 319 279.3 0.168
2000–01 47,204 346 282.4 0.167
2001–02 47,672 468 285.3 0.167
2002–03 48,183 511 288.1 0.167
2003–04 48,540 357 290.8 0.167
2004–05 48,795 255 293.5 0.166
2005–06 49,113 318 296.2 0.166
2006–07 49,316 203 299.0 0.165
2007–08 49,293 -23 302.0 0.163
2008–09 49,265 -27 304.8 0.162
Projected        
2009–10 49,282 17 307.4 0.160
2010–11 49,306 24 310.1 0.159
2011–12 49,422 116 313.1 0.158
2012–13 49,642 220 316.1 0.157
2013–14 49,914 272 319.2 0.156
2014–15 50,268 354 322.2 0.156
2015–16 50,659 392 325.4 0.156
2016–17 51,038 378 328.5 0.155
2017–18 51,430 392 331.7 0.155
2018–19 51,803 373 334.8 0.155
2019–20 52,204 401 338.0 0.154
2020–21 52,666 462 341.2 0.154
NOTE: Resident population includes civilian population and armed forces personnel residing with the United States: it excludes armed forces personnel overseas. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Projections are from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2008 National Population Projections, ratio-adjusted to line up with the most recent historical estimate.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 4, 2010, from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/; and Population Projections, retrieved November 2, 2009, from
http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/2008projections.html. U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1995–96 through 2008–09; and Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972–2008. (This table was prepared March 2011.)

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