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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table A-17.  Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time college enrollment rates of men

Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W.
statistic
           
Full-time          
           
Intercept term for 17-year-olds -7.46 0.251 -29.79 1.00 1.9*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds -4.58 0.231 -19.78    
Intercept term for 19-year-olds -4.24 0.201 -21.06    
Intercept term for 20-year-olds -4.32 0.204 -21.17    
Intercept term for 21-year-olds -4.48 0.203 -22.04    
Intercept term for 22-year-olds -4.91 0.206 -23.82    
Intercept term for 23-year-olds -5.40 0.204 -26.40    
Intercept term for 24-year-olds -5.74 0.222 -25.92    
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds -6.48 0.209 -31.00    
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds -7.44 0.242 -30.79    
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds -7.96 0.241 -32.98    
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita          
disposable income in 2000 dollars, using the present          
period and the previous two periods 0.67 0.034 20.06    
Log age-specific unemployment rate for men 0.18 0.018 10.01    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 17-year-olds 0.86 0.042 20.43    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 18-year-olds 0.88 0.047 18.56    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 19-year-olds 0.44 0.125 3.49    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 20-year-olds 0.59 0.127 4.66    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 21-year-olds 0.52 0.125 4.13    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 22-year-olds 0.73 0.109 6.70    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 23-year-olds 0.65 0.120 5.42    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 24-year-olds 0.83 0.113 7.34    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 25- to 29-year-olds 0.68 0.076 8.98    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 30- to 34-year-olds 0.89 0.074 11.97    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 35- to 44-year-olds 0.87 0.068 12.81    
           
Part-time          
           
Intercept term for 17-year-olds -8.04 0.341 -23.57 0.99 1.8*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds -5.66 0.290 -19.55    
Intercept term for 19-year-olds -5.31 0.369 -14.38    
Intercept term for 20-year-olds -5.11 0.303 -16.89    
Intercept term for 21-year-olds -5.27 0.284 -18.57    
Intercept term for 22-year-olds -5.59 0.393 -14.22    
Intercept term for 23-year-olds -5.46 0.282 -19.34    
Intercept term for 24-year-olds -5.51 0.283 -19.43    
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds -5.94 0.298 -19.93    
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds -6.39 0.299 -21.40    
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds -6.32 0.285 -22.21    
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita          
disposable income in 2000 dollars, using the present          
period and the previous two periods 0.46 0.046 10.04    
Log unemployment rate 0.16 0.021 7.44    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 17-year-olds 0.69 0.112 6.15    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 18-year-olds 0.70 0.091 7.67    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 19-year-olds 0.92 0.057 16.02    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 20-year-olds 0.82 0.101 8.10    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 21-year-olds 0.54 0.089 6.02    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 22-year-olds 0.89 0.100 8.84    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 23-year-olds 0.43 0.106 4.02    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 24-year-olds 0.55 0.112 4.88    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 25- to 29-year-olds 0.89 0.044 20.32    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 30- to 34-year-olds 0.88 0.040 21.76    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 35- to 44-year-olds 0.63 0.060 10.52    
* p<.05.
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, J. (1996). Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method used to estimate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method with a first-order autocorrelation correction. The time period used to estimate both equations is from 1981 to 2009 and the number of observations is 319 after the correction for autocorrelation. For additional information, see Intriligator, M. D. (1978). Econometric Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model, 1980–2009. (This table was prepared January 2011.)

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