| Table A-9. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected grades 9-12 enrollment in public schools, by lead time, region, and state: 2011 (Table 9—Continued) |
|---|
| Region and state | Lead time (years) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| United States | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Northeast | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Connecticut | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 9.5 |
| Maine | 1.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 7.8 |
| Massachusetts | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| New Hampshire | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| New Jersey | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 10.4 |
| New York | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Pennsylvania | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 3.7 |
| Rhode Island | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| Vermont | 0.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Midwest | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Illinois | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| Indiana | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Iowa | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Kansas | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Michigan | 1.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| Minnesota | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| Missouri | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Nebraska | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| North Dakota | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 9.5 |
| Ohio | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| South Dakota | 1.5 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 12.2 |
| Wisconsin | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| See notes at end of table. (Table 9—Continued) |
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