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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table A-8.  Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten-8 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: 2011 (Table 8—Continued)

Region and state Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                     
United States 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.2
                     
Northeast 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7
Connecticut 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.4 4.5 5.5 5.9 6.2
Maine 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.8
Massachusetts 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.1
New Hampshire 0.7 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.4 3.2 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.6
New Jersey 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.4
New York 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.8
Pennsylvania 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.6
Rhode Island 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.6 2.6 2.8 3.5
Vermont 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.9 5.2 7.1 8.7 9.9 10.6
                     
Midwest 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3
Illinois 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.9
Indiana 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3
Iowa 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4
Kansas 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7
Michigan 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.5
Minnesota 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3
Missouri 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.1
Nebraska 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1
North Dakota 1.1 1.9 2.4 3.2 4.3 5.8 8.2 10.1 11.5 12.4
Ohio 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6
South Dakota 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.9 6.7 8.9 10.2 12.1 13.5 14.9
Wisconsin 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.6
See notes at end of table. (Table 8—Continued)

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