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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table A-2.  Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for selected statistics in all elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting institutions: 2011

Statistic Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                     
Public elementary and secondary schools                    
                     
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.2
9–12 enrollment 1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.3
High school graduates 2 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.7 4.2 4.0
Elementary and secondary teachers 3 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.4 5.1 5.9
Total current expenditures 4 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 3.3 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.1
Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment 4 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.1 3.0 3.6 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.5
                     
Private elementary and secondary schools 5                    
                     
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 3.4 4.6 3.7 7.2 7.7 10.6 9.3 9.4 8.1 6.3
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 3.5 4.9 4.1 8.0 9.2 12.1 10.6 10.4 10.2 7.9
9–12 enrollment 3.0 3.8 2.3 4.3 2.8 5.8 5.7 6.1 1.3 1.3
High school graduates 0.9 0.9 1.6 2.8 5.0 6.2 4.9 4.8 1.6 1.6
                     
Postsecondary degree-granting institutions 6                    
                     
Total enrollment 1.6 2.8 3.5 4.0 5.2 6.1 8.1 9.8 11.7 11.4
Men 1.6 3.2 4.0 4.8 5.9 6.6 8.5 9.8 11.7 11.7
Women 1.8 2.8 3.6 3.7 4.6 5.8 7.8 9.8 11.7 11.2
4-year institutions 1.7 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.9 6.8 9.0 10.9 13.1 13.2
2-year institutions 2.2 3.7 4.3 4.4 5.1 5.0 6.4 7.8 9.4 8.3
White 0.4 1.1 2.3 2.8 3.6
Black or African American 2.2 5.3 7.5 9.2 9.4
Hispanic or Latino 2.0 4.7 7.0 9.0 9.5
Asian/Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander 2.2 5.2 7.1 8.3 9.2
American Indian/Alaska Native 4.4 6.4 3.9 4.3 4.6
Nonresident alien 2.6 6.2 8.8 6.5 2.9
—Not available.
1 MAPEs for public prekindergarten–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 27 editions of Projections of Education Statistics.
2 MAPEs for public high school graduates were calculated from the past 20 editions of Projections of Education Statistics.
3 Data for teachers expressed in full-time equivalents. MAPEs for teachers were calculated from the past 20 editions containing teachers projections.
4 In constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. MAPEs for current expenditures were calculated using projections from the last 20 editions containing current expenditure projections.
5 MAPEs for private prekindergarten-12 enrollments and high school graduates were calculated from the past 9 editions.
6 MAPEs for postsecondary degree-granting institution enrollments were calculated using the last 13 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, with the exception of the enrollment projections by race/ethnicity, which were calculated using the last 5 editions of Projections of Education Statistics.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value over past projections of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. No MAPEs are presented for degrees conferred as the current models used for producing these projections have only been used for two other editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared February 2011.)

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