| Table 15. Actual and projected percentage changes in public high school graduates, by region and state: Selected school years, 2002–03 through 2020–21 |
|---|
| Region and state | Actual 2002–03 to 2007–08 | Projected | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007–08 to 2014–15 | 2014–15 to 2020–21 | 2007–08 to 2020–21 | |||
| United States | 10.3 | -4.4 | 4.0 | -0.6 | |
| Northeast | 15.7 | -11.2 | -1.8 | -12.8 | |
| Connecticut | 14.1 | -9.0 | -3.6 | -12.3 | |
| Maine | 10.8 | -13.4 | -2.4 | -15.5 | |
| Massachusetts | 16.5 | -9.6 | -1.5 | -10.9 | |
| New Hampshire | 13.4 | -14.0 | -8.0 | -20.8 | |
| New Jersey | 16.7 | -2.5 | 1.4 | -1.1 | |
| New York | 22.6 | -11.3 | -2.9 | -13.8 | |
| Pennsylvania | 8.6 | -16.9 | -1.6 | -18.3 | |
| Rhode Island | 11.0 | -20.4 | -2.9 | -22.7 | |
| Vermont | 6.1 | -20.6 | -3.1 | -23.0 | |
| Midwest | 7.1 | -7.7 | 1.3 | -6.5 | |
| Illinois | 15.0 | -2.4 | 1.6 | -0.8 | |
| Indiana | 6.9 | -1.9 | 0.7 | -1.2 | |
| Iowa | -0.8 | -9.7 | 5.6 | -4.6 | |
| Kansas | 2.6 | -6.4 | 8.8 | 1.8 | |
| Michigan | 14.8 | -15.3 | -7.7 | -21.8 | |
| Minnesota | 1.6 | -7.9 | 7.7 | -0.8 | |
| Missouri | 8.4 | -5.8 | 2.1 | -3.8 | |
| Nebraska | -0.6 | -5.4 | 12.4 | 6.3 | |
| North Dakota | -14.3 | -12.3 | -0.8 | -13.0 | |
| Ohio | 4.3 | -9.4 | -0.5 | -9.8 | |
| South Dakota | -4.6 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 11.4 | |
| Wisconsin | 3.0 | -10.5 | 2.5 | -8.2 | |
| South | 10.9 | -0.3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | |
| Alabama | 12.5 | -4.1 | 0.8 | -3.4 | |
| Arkansas | 4.2 | -2.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | |
| Delaware | 8.4 | 5.7 | 12.3 | 18.7 | |
| District of Columbia | 23.0 | -28.4 | -9.2 | -35.0 | |
| Florida | 16.9 | -10.6 | -4.1 | -14.2 | |
| Georgia | 24.8 | -0.1 | -4.1 | 7.7 | |
| Kentucky | 4.5 | -0.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | |
| Louisiana | -8.5 | -9.2 | 7.8 | -2.1 | |
| Maryland | 14.1 | -9.6 | 2.3 | -7.5 | |
| Mississippi | 4.1 | -2.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | |
| North Carolina | 19.5 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 18.5 | |
| Oklahoma | 2.6 | -2.7 | 8.0 | 5.1 | |
| South Carolina | 8.2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 11.1 | |
| Tennessee | 30.3 | -0.9 | 5.0 | 4.1 | |
| Texas | 5.9 | 9.1 | 15.1 | 25.6 | |
| Virginia | 6.1 | -4.1 | 6.8 | 2.5 | |
| West Virginia | 1.2 | -5.1 | 4.8 | -0.6 | |
| West | 8.7 | -1.7 | 5.7 | 3.9 | |
| Alaska | 7.6 | -8.5 | 10.6 | 1.2 | |
| Arizona | 23.4 | -1.2 | 13.1 | 11.8 | |
| California | 9.8 | -3.5 | 0.7 | -2.8 | |
| Colorado | 8.7 | 6.1 | 16.1 | 23.2 | |
| Hawaii | 16.0 | -12.9 | 6.6 | -7.1 | |
| Idaho | 4.5 | 3.0 | 12.3 | 15.6 | |
| Montana | -2.4 | -14.6 | 3.7 | -11.4 | |
| Nevada | 4.7 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 31.0 | |
| New Mexico | 7.9 | -4.2 | 8.9 | 4.2 | |
| Oregon | 7.2 | -3.9 | 3.6 | -0.5 | |
| Utah | -4.6 | 3.2 | 22.3 | 26.2 | |
| Washington | 2.0 | 1.7 | 6.3 | 8.2 | |
| Wyoming | -6.0 | -4.3 | 20.5 | 15.4 | |
| NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-10, appendix A. | |||||
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 and 2008–09; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980–81 through 2007–08. (This table was prepared January 2011.) |
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