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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table 15.  Actual and projected percentage changes in public high school graduates, by region and state: Selected school years, 2002–03 through 2020–21

Region and state Actual 2002–03 to 2007–08   Projected
  2007–08 to 2014–15 2014–15 to 2020–21 2007–08 to 2020–21
           
United States 10.3   -4.4 4.0 -0.6
           
Northeast 15.7   -11.2 -1.8 -12.8
Connecticut 14.1   -9.0 -3.6 -12.3
Maine 10.8   -13.4 -2.4 -15.5
Massachusetts 16.5   -9.6 -1.5 -10.9
New Hampshire 13.4   -14.0 -8.0 -20.8
New Jersey 16.7   -2.5 1.4 -1.1
New York 22.6   -11.3 -2.9 -13.8
Pennsylvania 8.6   -16.9 -1.6 -18.3
Rhode Island 11.0   -20.4 -2.9 -22.7
Vermont 6.1   -20.6 -3.1 -23.0
           
Midwest 7.1   -7.7 1.3 -6.5
Illinois 15.0   -2.4 1.6 -0.8
Indiana 6.9   -1.9 0.7 -1.2
Iowa -0.8   -9.7 5.6 -4.6
Kansas 2.6   -6.4 8.8 1.8
Michigan 14.8   -15.3 -7.7 -21.8
Minnesota 1.6   -7.9 7.7 -0.8
Missouri 8.4   -5.8 2.1 -3.8
Nebraska -0.6   -5.4 12.4 6.3
North Dakota -14.3   -12.3 -0.8 -13.0
Ohio 4.3   -9.4 -0.5 -9.8
South Dakota -4.6   3.8 7.3 11.4
Wisconsin 3.0   -10.5 2.5 -8.2
           
South 10.9   -0.3 7.3 6.9
Alabama 12.5   -4.1 0.8 -3.4
Arkansas 4.2   -2.4 4.6 2.1
Delaware 8.4   5.7 12.3 18.7
District of Columbia 23.0   -28.4 -9.2 -35.0
Florida 16.9   -10.6 -4.1 -14.2
Georgia 24.8   -0.1 -4.1 7.7
Kentucky 4.5   -0.1 5.2 5.1
Louisiana -8.5   -9.2 7.8 -2.1
Maryland 14.1   -9.6 2.3 -7.5
Mississippi 4.1   -2.9 4.4 1.4
North Carolina 19.5   7.7 10.0 18.5
Oklahoma 2.6   -2.7 8.0 5.1
South Carolina 8.2   4.0 6.8 11.1
Tennessee 30.3   -0.9 5.0 4.1
Texas 5.9   9.1 15.1 25.6
Virginia 6.1   -4.1 6.8 2.5
West Virginia 1.2   -5.1 4.8 -0.6
           
West 8.7   -1.7 5.7 3.9
Alaska 7.6   -8.5 10.6 1.2
Arizona 23.4   -1.2 13.1 11.8
California 9.8   -3.5 0.7 -2.8
Colorado 8.7   6.1 16.1 23.2
Hawaii 16.0   -12.9 6.6 -7.1
Idaho 4.5   3.0 12.3 15.6
Montana -2.4   -14.6 3.7 -11.4
Nevada 4.7   15.8 13.1 31.0
New Mexico 7.9   -4.2 8.9 4.2
Oregon 7.2   -3.9 3.6 -0.5
Utah -4.6   3.2 22.3 26.2
Washington 2.0   1.7 6.3 8.2
Wyoming -6.0   -4.3 20.5 15.4
NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-10, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 and 2008–09; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980–81 through 2007–08. (This table was prepared January 2011.)

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