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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table 13.  Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: 1995–96 through 2020–21

[In thousands]
School year Total   Race/ethnicity
  White Black Hispanic Asian/
Pacific Islander
American Indian/
Alaska Native
               
Actual              
1995–96 2,273,109   1,639,420 294,253 218,785 99,189 21,463
1996–97 2,358,403   1,687,681 309,626 234,043 104,764 22,287
1997–98 2,439,050   1,733,478 317,846 252,023 112,089 23,614
1998–99 2,485,630   1,754,619 322,532 268,539 115,930 24,012
1999–2000 2,553,844   1,787,322 334,206 283,738 123,231 25,347
2000–01 2,569,200   1,782,292 336,375 297,696 126,847 25,988
2001–02 2,621,534   1,801,173 345,854 314,989 132,347 27,169
2002–03 2,719,947   1,857,957 359,051 339,555 135,614 27,773
2003–04 2,753,438   1,851,136 373,307 362,467 137,913 28,615
2004–05 2,799,250   1,856,758 385,180 382,964 143,751 30,595
2005–06 2,815,544   1,854,775 392,180 388,718 150,567 29,303
2006–07 2,892,351   1,883,601 412,640 410,443 154,871 30,795
2007–08 2,999,508   1,916,642 435,920 453,383 161,164 32,401
Projected              
2008–09 3,021,530   1,893,700 450,650 480,280 164,290 32,610
2009–10 3,013,400   1,860,090 457,100 496,670 166,920 32,630
2010–11 2,981,520   1,814,440 460,110 504,600 170,270 31,550
2011–12 2,926,440   1,769,560 448,240 504,270 173,650 30,160
2012–13 2,912,480   1,748,920 440,710 514,210 178,360 29,730
2013–14 2,874,500   1,721,130 421,800 515,800 185,000 29,810
2014–15 2,867,400   1,703,760 422,650 521,950 189,720 29,740
2015–16 2,904,410   1,713,770 432,320 532,280 192,750 31,050
2016–17 2,930,530   1,722,770 436,950 538,600 198,250 31,660
2017–18 2,983,130   1,733,340 443,330 550,950 216,160 31,740
2018–19 2,983,780   1,726,110 442,460 557,020 220,000 32,370
2019–20 2,950,880   1,695,060 436,690 554,700 227,000 31,960
2020–21 2,981,170   1,707,400 425,940 575,060 234,550 32,690
NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. The historical racial/ethnic time-series were constructed using racial/ethnic high school graduate data at the state level. In some instances, high school graduate data by race/ethnicity had to be imputed. Further, in some instances, the racial/ethnic data had to be adjusted in order for them to sum to the state total for high school graduates. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. For additional information see the High School Graduates section A.2 in appendix A. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1996–97 through 2008–09; and National Public Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates Model by Race/Ethnicity Model, 1972–73 through 2007–08. (This table was prepared January 2011.)

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