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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table 12.  Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: 1995–96 through 2020–21

School year Total Public Private
       
Actual      
1995–96 1 2,518,064 2,273,109 244,955
1996–97 2,611,988 2,358,403 253,585
1997–98 1 2,704,133 2,439,050 265,083
1998–99 2,758,655 2,485,630 273,025
1999–2000 1 2,832,656 2,553,844 278,812
2000–01 2,847,973 2,569,200 278,773
2001–02 1 2,906,287 2,621,534 284,753
2002–03 3,015,702 2,719,947 295,755
2003–04 1 3,054,247 2,753,438 300,809
2004–05 3,106,499 2,799,250 307,249
2005–06 1 3,119,294 2,815,544 303,750
2006–07 3,198,956 2,892,351 306,605
2007–08 1 3,311,771 2,999,508 312,263
Projected      
2008–09 3,330,340 3,021,530 308,810
2009–10 3,321,380 3,013,400 307,980
2010–11 3,282,200 2,981,520 300,680
2011–12 3,220,050 2,926,440 293,610
2012–13 3,197,300 2,912,480 284,820
2013–14 3,153,500 2,874,500 279,000
2014–15 3,132,400 2,867,400 265,000
2015–16 3,164,790 2,904,410 260,380
2016–17 3,182,750 2,930,530 252,220
2017–18 3,231,350 2,983,130 248,220
2018–19 3,224,820 2,983,780 241,040
2019–20 3,182,520 2,950,880 231,640
2020–21 3,209,510 2,981,170 228,340
1 Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS.
NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1996–97 through 2008–09; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 1995–96 through 2007–08; and National Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates Model, 1972–73 through 2009–10. (This table was prepared January 2011.)

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