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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011


Table 7.  Actual and projected percentage changes in PK–12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region and state: Selected years, fall 2002 through fall 2020

Region and state     Projected
Actual 2002–2008   2008-2014 2014-2020 2008-2020
           
United States 2.2   2.0 4.8 6.9
           
Northeast -2.9   -3.7 1.1 -2.7
Connecticut -0.5   -3.9 1.3 -2.6
Maine -5.6   -2.3 3.2 0.8
Massachusetts -2.4   -3.6 -0.6 -4.2
New Hampshire -4.7   -5.6 3.1 -2.7
New Jersey 1.0   -0.5 1.5 1.0
New York -5.1   -5.2 0.2 -5.1
Pennsylvania -2.3   -3.9 1.9 -2.1
Rhode Island -8.7   -5.4 4.8 -0.8
Vermont -7.5   -2.3 8.0 5.6
           
Midwest -0.7   -0.8 1.7 1.0
Illinois 1.7   -0.1 1.2 1.1
Indiana 4.2   # 1.2 1.2
Iowa 1.1   1.3 1.2 2.4
Kansas #   3.3 2.7 6.2
Michigan -7.0   -6.3 -0.2 -6.5
Minnesota -1.3   4.5 8.7 13.6
Missouri 1.3   -0.1 1.6 1.5
Nebraska 2.5   4.3 3.5 7.9
North Dakota -9.1   -2.1 1.7 -0.5
Ohio -1.1   -2.9 -0.7 -3.6
South Dakota -2.5   5.0 4.2 9.4
Wisconsin -0.8   0.2 3.9 4.1
           
South 5.8   4.6 5.5 10.3
Alabama 0.9   -0.8 -1.6 -2.4
Arkansas 6.2   2.3 0.9 3.3
Delaware 7.8   6.1 6.4 12.9
District of Columbia -9.8   5.9 4.2 10.3
Florida 3.6   -0.5 6.5 5.9
Georgia 10.7   4.7 5.3 10.3
Kentucky 1.4   0.5 -0.7 -0.2
Louisiana -6.2   -0.2 -2.2 -2.4
Maryland -2.6   0.7 8.4 9.2
Mississippi -0.1   -1.7 -3.2 -4.9
North Carolina 11.4   7.4 7.2 15.1
Oklahoma 3.3   3.0 1.2 4.2
South Carolina 3.4   2.8 2.1 5.0
Tennessee 4.8   2.7 3.3 6.1
Texas 11.6   11.8 9.7 22.7
Virginia 5.0   3.0 6.2 9.4
West Virginia 0.1   -1.0 -4.6 -5.5
           
West 3.3   4.5 8.6 13.4
Alaska -2.8   7.9 15.7 24.8
Arizona 16.0   11.2 13.5 26.2
California -0.5   1.6 7.5 9.3
Colorado 8.9   9.6 7.7 18.0
Hawaii -2.4   1.6 3.3 5.0
Idaho 10.7   9.2 8.7 18.7
Montana -5.4   0.9 3.8 4.7
Nevada 17.3   12.3 14.3 28.4
New Mexico 3.1   5.5 5.5 11.2
Oregon 3.8   4.0 8.6 13.0
Utah 14.4   5.3 6.1 11.7
Washington 2.2   5.9 10.5 17.0
Wyoming -1.1   10.2 3.3 13.8
# Rounds to zero.          
NOTE: PK=prekindergarten. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of PK-12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” selected years, 2002–03 through 2008–09; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2008. (This table was prepared January 2011.)

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