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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011

Section 2. High School Graduates: State and Regional (Public School Data)



Figure 8. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 200708 through 202021

Figure 8.	Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 200708 through 202021


NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-10, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education, 200809; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 198081 through 200708. (This figure was prepared February 2011.)

High school graduates by state

The expected 1 percent national decrease in public high school graduates between 200708 and 202021 plays out differently among the states.

  • Increases are projected for 23 states, with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 8 states;
    • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 8 states; and
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 7 states.
  • Decreases are projected for 27 states and the District of Columbia, with
    • decreases of 5 percent or more projected for 16 states and the District of Columbia; and
    • decreases of less than 5 percent projected for 11 states.

For more information: Tables 14 and 15

Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 200203, 200708, and 202021

Figure 9.	Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 200203, 200708, and 202021


NOTE: See the glossary for a list of states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-10, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education, 200304 and 200809; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 198081 through 200708. (This figure was prepared February 2011.)

High school graduates by region

Between 200708 and 202021, the number of public high school graduates is projected to

  • decrease 13 percent in the Northeast;
  • decrease 6 percent in the Midwest;
  • increase 7 percent in the South; and
  • increase 4 percent in the West.

For more information: Tables 14 and 15




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