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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011

Section 2. High School Graduates: National



Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 199596 through 202021

Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 199596 through 202021


NOTE: Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education, 199596 through 200809; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 199596 through 200910; and National Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates Enrollment Model, 197273 through 200708. (This figure was prepared February 2011.)

The total number of high school graduates

  • increased 32 percent between 199596 and 200708, a period of 12 years; and
  • is projected to decrease 3 percent between 200708 and 202021, a period of 13 years.

The number of public high school graduates

  • increased 32 percent between 199596 and 200708; and
  • is projected to decrease 1 percent between 200708 and 202021.

The number of private high school graduates

  • increased 27 percent between 199596 and 200708; and
  • is projected to decrease 27 percent between 200708 and 202021.

For more information: Table 12

Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 199596 through 202021

Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 199596 through 202021


NOTE: The historical racial/ethnic time series were constructed using racial/ethnic high school graduate data at the state level. In some instances, high school graduate data by race/ethnicity had to be imputed. Further, in some instances, the racial/ethnic data had to be adjusted in order for them to sum to the state total for high school graduates. For additional information, see the High School Graduates section A.2 in appendix A. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education, 199697 through 200809; and National Public Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Model, 199596 through 200708. (This figure was prepared February 2011.)

High school graduates by race/ethnicity

Between 200708 and 202021, the number of public high school graduates is projected to

  • decrease 11 percent for students who are White;
  • decrease 2 percent for students who are Black;
  • increase 27 percent for students who are Hispanic;
  • increase 46 percent for students who are Asian/Pacific Islander; and
  • increase 1 percent for students who are American Indian/Alaska Native.

For more information: Table 13


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