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Projections of Education Statistics to 2020

NCES 2011-026
September 2011

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: State and Regional (Public School Data)



Figure 4. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2008 through fall 2020

Figure 4. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2008 through fall 2020


NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education, 200809; and State Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 19802008. (This figure was prepared February 2011.)

Enrollment by state

The expected 7 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2008 and 2020 plays out differently among the states.

  • Increases are projected for 36 states and the District of Columbia, with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 8 states;
    • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 17 states and the District of Columbia; and
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 11 states.
  • Decreases are projected for 14 states, with
    • decreases of 5 percent or more projected for 3 states; and
    • decreases of less than 5 percent projected for 11 states.

For more information: Tables 6 through 11

Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2002, fall 2008, and fall 2020

Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2002, fall 2008, and fall 2020


NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. See the glossary for a list of the states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education, 200203 and 200809; and State Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 19802008. (This figure was prepared February 2011.)

Enrollment by region

Between 2008 and 2020, public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to

  • decrease 3 percent in the Northeast;
  • increase 1 percent in the Midwest;
  • increase 10 percent in the South; and
  • increase 13 percent in the West.

For more information: Tables 6 through 11


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