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Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

NCES 2011-017
March 2011


Exhibit A-3.  Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for selected statistics in elementary and secondary schools: 2010

Statistic Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Public elementary and secondary schools                    
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.1
9–12 enrollment 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2
Private elementary and secondary schools                    
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 3.4 4.6 3.7 6.1 5.5 6.0 0.5 1.0
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 3.5 4.9 4.1 6.6 6.0 6.7 0.9 1.1
9–12 enrollment 3.0 3.8 2.3 4.5 3.6 3.5 0.7 0.7
—Not available.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value over past projections of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. MAPEs for public PK–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 26 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. MAPEs for private PK-12 enrollments high school graduates were calculated from the past 8 editions. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared February 2010.)

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