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Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

NCES 2011-017
March 2011


Table B-5.  Actual and projected numbers for fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, change in fall enrollment from previous year, resident population, and fall enrollment as a ratio of the population: School years 199495 through 20192020

School year Fall enrollment (in thousands) Change in fall
enrollment from
previous year
(in thousands)
Resident population
(in millions)
Fall enrollment
as a ratio of
the population
Actual        
1994–95 44,111 647 263.4 0.167
1995–96 44,840 729 266.6 0.168
1996–97 45,611 771 269.7 0.169
1997–98 46,127 516 272.9 0.169
1998–99 46,539 412 276.1 0.169
1999–2000 46,857 319 279.3 0.168
2000–01 47,204 346 282.4 0.167
2001–02 47,672 468 285.3 0.167
2002–03 48,183 511 288.0 0.167
2003–04 48,540 357 290.7 0.167
2004–05 48,795 255 293.3 0.166
2005–06 49,113 318 296.0 0.166
2006–07 49,316 203 298.8 0.165
2007–08 49,293 -23 301.7 0.163
Projected        
2008–09 49,265 -28 304.5 0.162
2009–10 49,312 47 307.2 0.161
2010–11 49,386 74 310.2 0.159
2011–12 49,554 167 313.2 0.158
2012–13 49,795 241 316.3 0.157
2013–14 50,088 293 319.3 0.157
2014–15 50,446 358 322.4 0.156
2015–16 50,827 381 325.6 0.156
2016–17 51,198 371 328.7 0.156
2017–18 51,583 385 331.8 0.155
2018–19 51,946 362 335.0 0.155
2019–20 52,342 396 338.2 0.155
NOTE: Resident population includes civilian population and armed forces personnel residing within the United States; it excludes armed forces personnel residing overseas. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Population projections are from the U.S. Census Bureau's middle series.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 13, 2009, from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/2008-nat-af.html; and Population Projections, retrieved November 2, 2009, from http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/2008projections.html. U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1994–95 through 2007–08; and Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972–2007. (This table was prepared March 2010.)

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