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Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

NCES 2011-017
March 2011


Table A-28.  Estimated equations and model statistics for degrees conferred, by degree type and sex

Dependent variable Equation1 R2 Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test statistic2 Time period
Associate's degrees, men DASSOCM =   1,758 + 79DUGFT2M + 58DUGFT2ML2     0.52 0.10 (0.951) 1980–81 to
2007–08
      (2.3)   (4.1)   (3.3)        
                           
Associate's degrees, women DLOGASSOCW =   # + 0.7DLOGUGFT2WS3 + .5MA(1)     0.59 0.07 (0.964) 1980–81 to
2007–08
      (†)   (3.8)   (2.8)        
                           
Bachelor's degrees, men DBACHM =   640 + 85DUGFT4M + 140DUGFT4ML2     0.81 1.49 (0.475) 1980–81 to
2007–08
      (0.6)   (3.4)   (5.7)        
                           
Bachelor's degrees, women DBACHW =   3620 + 96DUGFT4W + 103DUGFT4WL2     0.62 0.64 (0.726) 1980–81 to
2007–08
      (1.6)   (2.8)   (3.0)        
                           
Master's degrees, men PCHMASTM =   # + 0.6PCHGFTM + 0.6PCHGFTML1 + 0.4AR(1) 0.66 2.84 (0.241) 1970–71 to
2007–08
      (†)   (3.57)   (4.26)   (2.62)    
                           
Master's degrees, women PCHMASTW =   # + 0.4PCHGFTW + 0.6AR(1)     0.60 1.03 (0.596) 1974–75 to
2007–08
      (†)   (2.25)   (3.84)        
                           
First-professional degrees,
men
DFPROM =   101 + 163DFPFTML1 + 89DFPFTML2     0.61 3.34 (0.188) 1971–72 to
2007–08
      (0.6)   (5.1)   (3.0)        
                           
First-professional degrees,
women
DFPROW =   136 + 122DFPFTWL1 + 153DFPFTWL2     0.51 2.75 (0.25) 1971–72 to
2007–08
      (0.7)   (2.7)   (3.6)        
# Rounds to zero.
† Not applicable.
1AR(1) indicates that the model included an AR(1) term for correcting for first-order autocorrelation. To estimate the model, it was first transformed into a nonlinear model and then the coefficients were estimated simultaneously by applying a Marquardt nonlinear least squares algorithm to the transformed equation. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation and the method used to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see Judge, G., Hill, W., Griffiths, R., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T., The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pp. 315–318.
2 Number in parentheses is Prob. Chi-Square(2) associated with the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test. A p value greater than 0.05 implies that we do not reject the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation at the 5 or 10 percent significance levels. For an explanation of the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test statistic, see Greene, W. (2000). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
NOTE: R2 is the coefficient of determination. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics. There are no equations for doctor's degrees for men and women as projections of those items were obtained using double exponential smoothing.
DASSOCM = First difference of associate's degrees awarded to men.
DLOGASSOCW = First difference of the log of associate's degrees awarded to women.
DBACHM = First difference of bachelor's degrees awarded to men.
DBACHW = First difference of bachelor's degrees awarded to women.
PCHMASTM = Percentage change in master's degrees awarded to men.
PCHMASTW = Percentage change in master's degrees awarded to women.
DFPROM = First difference of first-professional degrees awarded to men.
DFPROW = First difference of first-professional degrees awarded to women.
DUGFT2M = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions.
DUGFT2ML2 = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged two periods.
DLOGUGFT2WS3= First difference of the sum of the full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions over the present year and the previous 2 years.
DUGFT4M = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions.
DUGFT4ML2 = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions, lagged two periods.
DUGFT4W = First difference of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions.
DUGFT4WL2 = First difference of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions, lagged two periods.
PCHGFTM = Percentage change in full-time male graduate enrollment.
PCHGFTML1 = Percentage change in full-time male graduate enrollment lagged one year.
PCHGFTW = Percentage change in full-time female graduate enrollment.
DFPFTML1 = First difference of full-time male first professional enrollment lagged one year.
DFPFTML2 = First difference of full-time male first professional enrollment lagged two years.
DFPFTWL1 = First difference of full-time female first professional enrollment lagged one year.
DFPFTWL2 = First difference of full-time female first professional enrollment lagged two years.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Degrees Conferred Model, 1970–71 through 2007–08. (This table was prepared February 2010.)

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