| Table A-8. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for the number of high school graduates in public elementary and secondary schools, by region and state: 2010 |
|---|
| State | Lead time (years) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| United States | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Northeast | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Connecticut | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| Maine | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| Massachusetts | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| New Hampshire | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| New Jersey | 2.7 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| New York | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| Pennsylvania | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| Rhode Island | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| Vermont | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 7.7 |
| Midwest | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Illinois | 2.7 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 9.1 |
| Indiana | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Iowa | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Kansas | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.6 |
| Michigan | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
| Minnesota | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| Missouri | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Nebraska | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| North Dakota | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 7.1 |
| Ohio | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| South Dakota | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 13.6 | 15.0 | 17.3 | 17.8 |
| Wisconsin | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| South | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Alabama | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Arkansas | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Delaware | 2.5 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
| District of Columbia | 6.5 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 13.7 | 16.5 | 17.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 14.0 | 11.2 |
| Florida | 2.0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 5.6 |
| Georgia | 2.0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 |
| Kentucky | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 3.3 |
| Louisiana | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 7.9 |
| Maryland | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 4.3 |
| Mississippi | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| North Carolina | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 6.8 |
| Oklahoma | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| South Carolina | 1.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| Tennessee | 5.5 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 7.8 |
| Texas | 2.7 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 14.7 |
| Virginia | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| West Virginia | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 6.2 |
| West | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| Alaska | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.9 |
| Arizona | 9.8 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 14.5 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 9.2 |
| California | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 6.1 |
| Colorado | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Hawaii | 4.1 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 14.5 | 16.1 | 18.4 | 20.8 |
| Idaho | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| Montana | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 11.8 |
| Nevada | 4.5 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| New Mexico | 3.5 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 12.8 |
| Oregon | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| Utah | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| Washington | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Wyoming | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 12.4 |
| NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value over past projections of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. National MAPEs for public high school graduates were calculated using the last 19 editions of Projections of Education Statistics and state MAPEs were calculated using the last 14 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published numbers. | ||||||||||
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared June 2010.) |
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