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Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

NCES 2011-017
March 2011


Table A-7.  Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for 912 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region and state: 2010

State Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
United States 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2
                     
Northeast 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.2
Connecticut 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.0 6.1 8.0 10.4
Maine 1.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.6 6.6 7.5 7.8 5.9
Massachusetts 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.9
New Hampshire 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 3.3 4.3 5.6
New Jersey 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.6 3.5 4.7 6.3 8.2 9.7 10.2
New York 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.4 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.5 5.1
Pennsylvania 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.3 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.4 3.8
Rhode Island 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.6 4.4 4.7 4.0 3.8 2.8 3.0
Vermont 0.9 2.5 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.8 4.3
                     
Midwest 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.1
Illinois 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.3 3.2 3.9 4.9 5.5 6.0
Indiana 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5
Iowa 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.2
Kansas 1.3 1.9 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 0.9
Michigan 1.7 3.0 3.7 4.4 5.5 6.2 7.2 8.1 9.1 9.7
Minnesota 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.4
Missouri 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2
Nebraska 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.2
North Dakota 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.5 4.6 6.1 8.3 10.6
Ohio 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.4 4.4 3.7
South Dakota 1.4 3.1 4.6 6.0 7.4 8.7 10.0 10.9 11.2 10.9
Wisconsin 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.7
                     
South 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.9
Alabama 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.7
Arkansas 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.8
Delaware 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.5 4.5 5.0 6.6
District of Columbia 6.8 7.2 10.2 13.1 16.2 19.2 18.5 17.3 18.1 13.3
Florida 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.9 4.1 5.8 7.4 9.2
Georgia 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.4
Kentucky 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.0 3.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.6
Louisiana 3.5 4.5 4.7 5.9 7.3 8.8 10.5 11.1 14.1 17.7
Maryland 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.6
Mississippi 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.5
North Carolina 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.6 2.1
Oklahoma 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1
South Carolina 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.4 3.6 3.8
Tennessee 2.1 2.2 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.6 4.7 3.9
Texas 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.3 5.6 5.5
Virginia 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.1 3.9 4.5 5.0 4.8 3.5
West Virginia 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.2 3.1 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.9
                     
West 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.5 1.1
Alaska 1.1 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.7 3.9 4.7 4.7
Arizona 4.6 7.2 8.4 8.1 7.4 6.9 7.4 8.0 11.9 16.7
California 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.5 1.9
Colorado 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.4
Hawaii 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.8 7.2 8.4 9.3 9.8 12.4
Idaho 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.8
Montana 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3
Nevada 1.2 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 5.3 8.8 12.4
New Mexico 3.2 5.1 6.8 8.5 10.8 12.2 14.0 15.3 17.8 21.6
Oregon 1.3 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.7 3.3 4.1 5.0 4.8 4.3
Utah 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.8 2.4 3.1 4.0 5.1 6.6 7.8
Washington 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.6 4.3 4.8
Wyoming 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.1 4.1 5.0 6.3 7.3 8.7 11.9
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value over past projections of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. National MAPEs for public 9–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 26 editions of Projections of Education Statistics and state MAPEs were calculated using the last 14 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared June 2010.)

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