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Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

NCES 2011-017
March 2011


Table A-3.  Actual and projected national public school grade progression rates: Fall 2007, and 2008 through 2019

Grade   Actual 2007 Projected
  2008 through 2019
1 to 2   98.7 98.6
2 to 3   100.5 100.6
3 to 4   99.9 100.0
4 to 5   100.4 100.5
5 to 6   100.7 100.9
6 to 7   101.1 101.2
7 to 8   99.8 99.7
8 to 9   111.5 112.0
9 to 10   90.7 90.3
10 to 11   91.6 91.7
11 to 12   95.0 94.7
NOTE: The progression rate for a particular grade in a year equals the enrollment in the grade for that year divided by the enrollment in the previous grade in the previous year, all multiplied by 100. For example, the progresssion rate for 3rd-graders in 2007 divided by the enrollment of 2nd-graders in 2006, all multiplied by 100.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2007–08; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972–2007. (This table was prepared January 2010.)

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