Skip Navigation
small NCES header image
Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

NCES 2011-017
March 2011


Table A-2.  Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) by lead time for selected statistics in all public elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions: 2010

Statistic Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Public elementary and secondary schools                    
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.1
9–12 enrollment 1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2
High school graduates 2 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.0 3.8
Elementary and secondary teachers 3 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.4 5.1 6.3
Total current expenditures 4 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.5 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.4
Private elementary and secondary schools 5                    
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 3.4 4.6 3.7 6.1 5.5 6.0 0.5 1.0
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 3.5 4.9 4.1 6.6 6.0 6.7 0.9 1.1
9–12 enrollment 3.0 3.8 2.3 4.5 3.6 3.5 0.7 0.7
High school graduates 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.8 5.9 5.6 2.2 2.2
Degree-granting institutions 6                    
Total enrollment 1.4 2.4 2.9 3.4 4.6 6.1 8.0 9.8 10.1 10.4
Men 1.5 2.9 3.5 4.1 5.2 6.6 8.1 9.8 10.2 10.3
Women 1.5 2.4 3.0 3.2 4.2 5.8 7.9 9.8 9.9 10.4
4-year institutions 1.5 2.5 3.3 4.1 5.3 6.8 8.8 10.9 11.5 12.4
2-year institutions 2.0 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.8 5.0 6.6 7.8 7.6 6.9
—Not available.
1MAPEs for public PK–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 26 editions of Projections of Education Statistics.
2MAPEs for public high school graduates were calculated from the past 19 editions of Projections of Education Statistics.
3Data for teachers expressed in full-time equivalents. MAPEs for teachers were calculated from the past 19 editions containing teacher projections.
4In constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. MAPEs for current expenditures were calculated using projections from the last 19 editions containing current expenditure projections.
5MAPEs for private PK–12 enrollments and high school graduates were calculated from the past 8 editions of Projections of Education Statistics.
6MAPEs for degree-granting institution enrollments were calculated using the last 12 editions of Projections of Education Statistics.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value over past projections of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. No MAPEs are presented for degrees conferred as the current model used for producing their projections has been used for only one other edition of the Projections of Education Statistics. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared February 2010.)

Would you like to help us improve our products and website by taking a short survey?

YES, I would like to take the survey

or

No Thanks

The survey consists of a few short questions and takes less than one minute to complete.