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Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

NCES 2011-017
March 2011


Table A-1.  Summary of forecast assumptions to 2019

Variable   Assumption
Demographic variables    
Population   Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle series estimates 1
18- to 24-year-old population   Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.1%
     
25- to 29-year-old population   Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.8%
     
30- to 34-year-old population   Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 1.3%
     
35- to 44-year-old population   Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.3%
     
Economic variables    
Disposable income per capita in
constant dollars
  Annual percent changes range between -0.7% and 2.6% with an
annual growth rate of 1.5%
 
     
Education revenue receipts from state
sources per capita in constant dollars
  Annual percent changes range between -1.3% and 2.7% with an
annual growth rate of 1.4%
 
     
Inflation rate   Inflation rate ranges between 0.9% and 2.1%
     
Unemployment rate (men)    
Ages 18 and 19   Remains between 20.1% and 30.3%
     
Ages 20 to 24   Remains between 11.7% and 18.7%
     
Age 25 and over   Remains between 5.0% and 8.3%
     
Unemployment rate (women)    
Ages 18 and 19   Remains between 14.6% and 20.6%
     
Ages 20 to 24   Remains between 8.9% and 12.9%
     
Age 25 and over   Remains between 4.5% and 6.7%
1As the Census projections were not updated to reflect 2008 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau age-specific population projections for each year were adjusted by multiplying the ratio of the total Census Bureau estimate for 2008 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2008.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 13, 2009, from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/2008-nat-af.html; and Population Projections, retrieved November 2, 2009, from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/2008-nat-af.html; and IHS Global Insight, "U.S. Monthly Model November 2009 Short-Term Projections." (This table was prepared March 2010.)

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