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ContactContinuing growth in enrollment in degree-granting institutions has been reflected by an increase in the number of degrees conferred. Increases in the number of degrees conferred are expected to continue between academic year 2007–08, the last year of actual data, and academic year 2019–20.
The projections of the number of degrees conferred are related to projections of the college-age populations developed by the Census Bureau and college enrollments from this report. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.6.
Some factors that may affect future numbers of degrees, such as choice of degree and labor force requirements, were not included in the projection models.
A first-professional degree is one that signifies both completion of the academic requirements for beginning practice in a given profession and a level of professional skill beyond that required for a bachelor’s degree. A first-professional degree is based on a program requiring at least 2 academic years of work beyond the bachelor’s degree. Degree fields include dentistry, medicine, optometry, osteopathic medicine, pharmacy, podiatric medicine, veterinary medicine, chiropractic, law, and theological professions.
An analysis of projection errors from the past 13 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for associate’s degree projections were 2.0 percent for 1 year out, 3.4 percent for 2 years out, 6.2 percent for 5 years out, and 16.2 percent for 10 years out. The MAPEs for bachelor’s degree projections were 0.8, 1.8, 5.9, and 13.6 percent, respectively, for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out. The MAPEs for master’s degrees were 1.5, 3.3, 11.2, and 25.1 percent, respectively. For doctor’s degrees, the MAPEs were 3.4, 5.6, 7.8, and 13.9 percent, respectively. For first-professional degrees, the MAPEs were 1.2, 1.6, 4.6, and 12.6 percent, respectively. For more information on the MAPEs of different NCES projection series, see table A-2, appendix A.
