Section 5. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions: Introduction

Total enrollment in degree-granting institutions is expected to increase between fall 2008, the last year of actual data, and fall 2019. Degree-granting institutions are postsecondary institutions that provide study beyond secondary school and offer programs terminating in an associate's, baccalaureate, or higher degree and participate in federal financial aid programs. Differential growth is expected by student characteristics such as age, sex, and attendance status (part-time or full-time). Enrollment is expected to increase in both public and private degree-granting institutions.

Figure 15. Actual and projected population numbers for 18- to 24-year-olds and 25- to 29-year-olds: 1994 through 2019

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NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Projections are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s middle series. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 13, 2009, from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/2008-nat-af.html; and Population Projections, retrieved November 2, 2009, from http://www.census.gov/population/www/projec
tions/2008projections.html. (This table was prepared April 2010.)

Factors affecting the projections

The projections of enrollment levels are related to projections of college-age populations, disposable income, and unemployment rates. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.5. An important factor is the expected increase in the population of 25- to 29-year-olds (table B-4 in appendix B).

Factors that were not considered

The enrollment projections do not take into account such factors as the cost of a college education, the economic value of an education, and the impact of distance learning due to technological changes. These factors may produce changes in enrollment levels. The racial/ethnic backgrounds of nonresident aliens are not known.