Skip Navigation
small NCES header image
Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

NCES 2011-017
March 2011

Section 2. High School Graduates: State and Regional (Public School Data)



Figure 8. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: 2006–07 through 2019–20

Figure 8. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: 2006–07 through 2019–20


NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2007–08; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980–81 through 2006–07. (This figure was prepared April 2010.)

High school graduates by state

The expected 2 percent national increase in public high school graduates between 2006–07 and 2019–20 plays out differently among the states.

  • Increases are projected for 23 states and the District of Columbia, with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 8 states;
    • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 9 states and the District of Columbia; and
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 6 states.
  • Decreases are projected for 27 states, with
    • decreases of 5 percent or more projected for 21 states; and
    • decreases of less than 5 percent projected for 6 states.

For more information:
Tables 14 and 15

Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: 2001–02, 2006–07, and 2019–20

Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: 2001–02, 2006–07, and 2019–20


NOTE: See the glossary for a list of states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2002–03 and 2007–08; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980–81 through 2006–07. (This figure was prepared January 2010.)

High school graduates by region

Between 2006–07 and 2019–20, the number of public high school graduates is projected to

  • decrease 14 percent in the Northeast;
  • decrease 7 percent in the Midwest;
  • increase 12 percent in the South; and
  • increase 9 percent in the West.

For more information:
Tables 14 and 15



Top

Would you like to help us improve our products and website by taking a short survey?

YES, I would like to take the survey

or

No Thanks

The survey consists of a few short questions and takes less than one minute to complete.