NCES 2011-017
March 2011

## Section 2. High School Graduates: State and Regional (Public School Data)

Figure 8. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: 200607 through 201920

NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education, 200708; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 198081 through 200607. (This figure was prepared April 2010.)

## High school graduates by state

### The expected 2 percent national increase in public high school graduates between 200607 and 201920 plays out differently among the states.

• Increases are projected for 23 states and the District of Columbia, with
• increases of more than 15 percent projected for 8 states;
• increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 9 states and the District of Columbia; and
• increases of less than 5 percent projected for 6 states.
• Decreases are projected for 27 states, with
• decreases of 5 percent or more projected for 21 states; and
• decreases of less than 5 percent projected for 6 states.

Tables 14 and 15

Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: 200102, 200607, and 201920

NOTE: See the glossary for a list of states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education, 200203 and 200708; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 198081 through 200607. (This figure was prepared January 2010.)

## High school graduates by region

### Between 200607 and 201920, the number of public high school graduates is projected to

• decrease 14 percent in the Northeast;
• decrease 7 percent in the Midwest;
• increase 12 percent in the South; and
• increase 9 percent in the West.

Tables 14 and 15

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National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces.ed.gov
U.S. Department of Education