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Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

NCES 2011-017
March 2011

Section 2. High School Graduates: National



Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: 1994–95 through 2019–20

Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: 1994–95 through 2019–20


NOTE: Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1994–95 through 2007–08; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 1995–96 through 2007–08; and National Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates Enrollment Model, 1972–73 through 2006–07. (This figure was prepared April 2010.)

The total number of high school graduates

  • increased 27 percent between 1994–95 and 2006–07, a period of 12 years; and
  • is projected to increase an additional 1 percent between 2006–07 and 2019–20, a period of 13 years.

The number of public high school graduates

  • increased 27 percent between 1994–95 and 2006–07; and
  • is projected to increase an additional 2 percent between 2006–07 and 2019–20.

The number of private high school graduates

  • increased 25 percent between 1994–95 and 2006–07; and
  • is projected to decrease 4 percent between 2006–07 and 2019–20.

For more information:
Table 12

Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: 1994–95 through 2019–20

Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: 1994–95 through 2019–20


NOTE: The historical racial/ethnic time series were constructed using racial/ethnic high school graduate data at the state level. In some instances, high school graduate data by race/ethnicity had to be imputed. Further, in some instances, the racial/ethnic data had to be adjusted in order for it to sum to the state total for high school graduates. For additional information, see the High School Graduates section of appendix A. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1995–96 through 2007–08; and National Public Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Model, 1995–96 through 2007–08. (This figure was prepared April 2010.)

High school graduates by race/ethnicity

Between 2006–07 and 2019–20, the number of public high school graduates is projected to

  • decrease 13 percent for students who are White;
  • decrease 2 percent for students who are Black;
  • increase 60 percent for students who are Hispanic;
  • increase 39 percent for students who are Asian or Pacific Islander; and
  • decrease 2 percent for students who are American Indian or Alaska Native.

For more information:
Table 13


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