Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: State and Regional (Public School Data)

Figure 4. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2007 through fall 2019

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NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2007–08; and State Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2007. (This figure was prepared April 2010.)

Enrollment by state

The expected 6 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2007 and 2019 plays out differently among the states.

• Increases are projected for 32 states and the District of Columbia, with
  • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 7 states;
  • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 14 states; and
  • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 11 states and the District of Columbia.
• Decreases are projected for 18 states, with
  • decreases of 5 percent or more projected for 10 states; and
  • decreases of less than 5 percent projected for 8 states.

For more information:
Tables 6 through 11

Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2001, 2007, and 2019

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NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. See the glossary for a list of the states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2001–02 and 2007–08; and State Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2007. (This figure was prepared April 2010.)

Enrollment by region

Between 2007 and 2019, public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to

• decrease 6 percent in the Northeast;
• decrease 3 percent in the Midwest;
• increase 13 percent in the South; and
• increase 12 percent in the West.

For more information:
Tables 6 through 11