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Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

NCES 2011-017
March 2011

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: National


Figure 1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level: Fall 1994 through fall 2019

Figure 1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level: Fall 1994 through fall 2019


NOTE: PK = prekindergarten. Enrollment numbers for prekindergarten through 12th grade and prekindergarten through 8th grade include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1994–95 through 2007–08; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 1995–96 through 2007–08; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972–2007. (This figure was prepared April 2010.)

Total elementary and secondary enrollment

  • increased 10 percent between 1994 and 2007; and
  • is projected to increase an additional 6 percent between 2007 and 2019.

Enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8

  • increased 5 percent between 1994 and 2007; and
  • is projected to increase an additional 9 percent between 2007 and 2019.

Enrollment in grades 9–12

  • increased 23 percent between 1994 and 2007; and
  • is projected to increase less than 1 percent between 2007 and 2019.

For more information:
Tables 1 and 2


Figure 2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 1994 through fall 2019

Figure 2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 1994 through fall 2019


NOTE: Private school numbers include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1994–95 through 2007–08; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 1995–96 through 2007–08; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972–2007. (This figure was prepared April 2010.)

Enrollment by control of school

Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools

  • increased 12 percent between 1994 and 2007; and
  • is projected to increase an additional 6 percent between 2007 and 2019.

Enrollment in private elementary and secondary schools

  • decreased 1 percent between 1994 and 2007; and
  • is projected to increase 6 per¬cent between 2007 and 2019.

For more information:
Table 1









Figure 3. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 1994 through fall 2019

Figure 3. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 1994 through fall 2019


NOTE: The historical racial/ethnic time-series were constructed using racial/ethnic enrollment data at the state level for individual grades. In some instances, enrollment data by race/ethnicity had to be imputed. Further, in some instances, the racial/ethnic enrollment data for individual grades had to be adjusted to the state total for that grade. For additional information see the Elementary and Secondary Enrollment section of appendix A. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1994–95 through 2007–08; and National Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Model, 1994–2007. (This figure was prepared April 2010.)

Enrollment by race/ethnicity

Between 2007 and 2019, enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools is projected to

  • decrease 4 percent for students who are White;
  • decrease 4 percent for students who are Black;
  • increase 36 percent for students who are Hispanic;
  • increase 31 percent for students who are Asian or Pacific Islander; and
  • increase 13 percent for students who are American Indian or Alaska Native.

For more information:
Tables 3, 4, and 5

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