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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009

Table A-27.  Estimated equations and model statistics for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment, and education revenue from state sources per capita

Dependent variable Equation1                   R2 Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test statistic2 Time period
Current expenditures ln(CUREXP) =   1.0 + 0.6ln(PCI) + 0.2ln(SGRANT) + 0.9AR(1) 0.99 1.04* 1973–74 to
per pupil           (3.5)   (2.3)         2005–06
Education revenue ln(SGRNT) =   1.2 + 1.2ln(PCI) + 0.8ln(ENRPOP) + 0.4AR(1) 0.99 1.71* 1973–74 to
from state sources           (19.7)   (5.3)         2005–06
per capita                          
* p<.05.
1 AR(1) indicates that the models was estimated using least squares with the AR(1) process for correcting for first-order autocorrelation. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast when correcting for autocorrelation, see G. Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pp. 315–318.
2 For an explanation of the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test statistic, see Greene, W. (2000). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
CUREXP = Current expenditures of public elementary and secondary schools per pupil in fall enrollment in constant 1982–84 dollars.
SGRANT = Local governments' education revenue from state sources, per capita, in constant 1982–84 dollars.
PCI = Disposable income per capita in constant 2000 chained dollars.
ENRPOP = Ratio of fall enrollment to the population.
NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Elementary and Secondary School Current Expenditures Model, 1973–74 through 2005–06; and Revenue Receipts from State Sources Model, 1973–74 through 2005–06. (This table was prepared February 2009.)

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