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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009


Table A-23.  Estimated equations and model statistics for public elementary and secondary teachers

Dependent variable                   Equation1 R2 Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test statistic2 Time period
                           
Elementary ln(RELENRTCH) =   3.8 + .1 ln(RSALARY) - .2 ln(RSGRNTELENR) + .4AR(1) 0.99 .03* 1973 to
            (4.8)   (-10.5)   (2.10)     2005
                           
Secondary ln(RSCENRTCH) =   4.1 - .2 ln(RSGRNTSCENR) + .5 ln(RSCENRPU) + .7AR(1) 0.99 .06* 1973 to
            (-14.9)   (4.5)   (4.14)     2005
                           
* p<.05.
1 AR(1) indicates that the model was estimated to account for first-order autocorrelation and MA(1) indicates that the model was estimated to incorporate moving average of the residual into model fit. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see Judge, G., Hill, W., Griffiths, R., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T. (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley and Sons, pp. 315-318.
2 For an explanation of the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test statistic, see Greene, W. (2000). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
Where:
RELENRTCH = Log of the ratio of public elementary school enrollment to classroom teachers (i.e., student/teacher ratio)
RSCENRTCH = Log of the ratio of public secondary school enrollment to classroom teachers (i.e., student/teacher ratio)
RSALARY = Log of the average annual teacher salary relative to the overall economy wage in 2000 dollars
RSGRNTELENR = Log of the ratio of education revenue receipts from state sources per capita to public elementary school enrollment in 2000 dollars
RSGRNTSCENR = Log of the ratio of education revenue receipts from state sources per capita to public secondary school enrollment in 2000 dollars
RSCENRPU = Log of the ratio of enrollment in public secondary schools to the 11- to 18-year-old population
NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Elementary and Secondary Teacher Model, 19732005. (This table was prepared February 2009.)

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